The Oscar race for Best Actress in a Leading Role hasn’t been exciting since 2010, when Natalie Portman won for her performance in “Black Swan.” Since then, the category has been incredibly predictable. Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett and last year’s winner Julianne Moore had essentially been crowned long before the season had even begun, with little to no competition standing in their way of winning.
This year, however, looks to change that. With the announcement that Alicia Vikander from, “The Danish Girl” will be campaigned in Supporting Actress, that leaves all five potential slots wide open for anyone to grab. Another pleasing bit of news is that this looks to be not only the most competitive race, but interesting in terms of roles. Many of the films in contention this year are female driven, which is a nice change of pace from the testosterone fest that was last year’s Best Picture race.
Of the films that have premiered thus far, it’s a safe bet to say that Brie Larson is in the best position of landing a nomination, which would be her first ever. “Room” was something of a phenomenon after its incredible premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, where it won Best Picture. Larson has been on the bubble of breaking out for awhile, but given the large campaign that distributor A24 plans to mount in support of the film it seems like this will finally be her year. Her performance has been lauded as “astonishing,” and “remarkable,” and with the film being a strong contender in several other categories, seeing her miss here would be a surprise. Winning, however, is a different thing altogether. A24 has, unsuccessfully, tried entering the Oscar game before with films like “Spring Breakers” and “A Most Violent Year” so hold the applause until “Room” begins to expand to its theatrical release to see if it has strong word of mouth and box office performance.
Larson’s strongest competitor, of the films that have been seen, is Saoirse Ronan whose performance in “Brooklyn” has been making waves since Sundance. Ronan, a previous nominee for 2007’s “Atonement,” has been receiving career best notices from the likes of The Hollywood Reporter and Variety, with the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score sitting pretty at 100%, calling her performance “outstanding.” The film’s central theme of coming of age is synonymous with Ronan’s own career as an actress. After winning acclaim as a child, she has since struggled with finding projects that suit her. “Brooklyn” seems to give the actress something to work with, and it’s pretty clear from the trailer that her maturity is showcased. This is another film that will be a strong contender in several categories, including Picture, and the period element is something I predict Academy members will respond positively to.
Also in contention is Lily Tomlin, who is experiencing something of a career resurgence with Netflix’s “Grace & Frankie” and her performance in the indie “Grandma.” Though reviews have been luminous, it remains to be seen if Tomlin can win awards attention for such a small film. Similarly, can Charlotte Rampling, who has never been nominated for an Oscar, translate career best reviews for “45 Years” into Oscar success despite the film’s small size? Controversy aside, “Suffragette” has previous nominee Carey Mulligan leading the female led cast towards the Oscars, but I’m not sure if the film can overcome the horrific press tour it’s been having. Cate Blanchett will have to face competition between her two performances in “Carol” and “Truth,” and though the internet wants Charlize Theron to be recognized for “Mad Max,” I’m not sure the Academy is ready to go all out for a genre film. It sounds crazy, but they’re more likely to embrace it in Best Picture or Best Director.
Waiting in the wings to shake things up, however, is Hollywood’s favorite It Girl Jennifer Lawrence. Though you may have laughed at the idea that her Oscar submission this year was a biopic about the creator of the Miracle Mop, Lawrence and director/writer David O. Russell are clearly pulling out all the stops. This marks Lawrence’s third collaboration with O.Russell, the previous two being “Silver Linings Playbook” (which won her an Oscar) and “American Hustle” (which saw her almost winning another Oscar).
The trailer, which was cut to resemble a Scorsese movie, sparked a huge question of whether Lawrence would be in the running this year or not. But after the film’s secret screening last week, it’s clear she’s back, and stands a good chance of running away with the whole race… at least that’s what I’m hearing. Erik Anderson of awardswatch.com was lucky enough to be present at this screening, and called the film:
“David O. Russell’s best film since ‘Three Kings… It’s such a director’s film and I think a culmination of everything from DOR’s career so far plus more… 100% Jennifer Lawrence show- in every scene. Could easily win… such a rich, complex story that, I think, doesn’t hold the audience’s hands.”
The film does not premiere until Christmas Day, and will not screen at any high-profile festivals or events before then, so it’s important to take things like this with a grain of salt. But the fact that Lawrence is an Academy favorite at such a young age, and is assured to be in another box office success this year with the final “Hunger Games” film is something foolish to bet against; It’s the same formula that won her the award in 2012.
I, for one, do not consider myself foolish, so I won’t be saying Lawrence is going to miss for this one. However, I don’t think this is going to be the cakewalk it was for her back in 2012. On the contrary, if Lawrence wants that second Oscar, she’s not going to be able to coast on simply a good performance, she’s going to have to campaign for it. And hard.
