The BAFTA's are the last precursor award we hear from before the Oscars. Unlike the past few years where Best Picture has been prematurely decided before we even hear from the first voting body. 2010 was The King's Speech, 2011 was The Artist, and 2012 was Argo. This year, 3 films have been clearly in the lead: 12 Years A Slave, Gravity and American Hustle, with Her and Captain Phillips nipping at their feet.
Gravity and 12 Years A Slave, however, have the most heat, with American Hustle lurking in the background, looking to swoop in. As I've discussed before, Gravity has the box office and star power, 12 Years A Slave has the prestige and the "important" narrative, with American Hustle having not only the actors behind it, but the fact it's a "lighter" choice than the others.
Here is a breakdown of the last few months in terms of awards (in case you haven't been looking at my awards tally tab):
Toronto Audience award- 12 Years A Slave
New York Film Critics- American Hustle
National Board of Review- Her
Los Angeles- Her & Gravity
Southeastern Film Critics- 12 Years A Slave
Golden Globes- 12 Years A Slave
Critics Choice- 12 Years A Slave
Producers Guild- 12 Years A Slave & Gravity
Screen Actors Guild- American Hustle
Directors Guild- Gravity
Eddies- American Hustle & Captain Phillips
Writers Guild- Captain Phillips & Her
Scripters- 12 Years A Slave
Where will the BAFTA's figure in to all of this?
Heading into the ceremony, Gravity has the edge with 12 nominations; it is present in Picture, Director, Actress and even the Screenplay category, which could be very telling. One detractor (the only one it seems) the film has received is that critics have found its screenplay to be "thin". It hasn't won or been nominated for its Screenplay all season, so the fact BAFTA chose to include it here is very telling; it's clearly the favorite.
American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave, however, aren't too far behind with their nomination count. 12 Years A Slave has the benefit of being made by British director Steve McQueen, starring British Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor; the BAFTA's do like to reward their own (remember when they snubbed Melissa Leo and reward Helena Bonham Carter's near cameo in The King's Speech back in 2010? or that awful nomination for Judi Dench's performance in My Week With Marylin).
But it's hard to say exactly whether or not the BAFTA's will decide who wins Best Picture. They may vote similarly to the Academy, but they do not use a preferential ballot like the Academy. What this means is that since their balloting system is different, we can't say for sure that the winner will win the Oscar; however, logic would tell it's between Gravity and 12 YAS because of the tie PGA win. But if American Hustle wins, it could be indicative of how truly beloved it is going into Oscar, meaning, even if it doesn't win Best Picture, what else could it win? Ultimately a win at BAFTA may shine a light on which film could squeak ahead of the other, but it won't be the be all end all death sentence it's been in earlier years.
There is clear support for each of the 3 films, and there are many British Academy voters, so their influence will be felt in such a toss up race like this. The best example of this was back in 2007, in the Best Supporting Actress race. The race was between Cate Blanchett (Venice Film Festival award+critics + Globe), Ruby Dee (SAG) until Tilda Swinton unexpectedly won at the BAFTA's and would later win the Oscar. Now, acting categories can hardly be compared to the Picture categories, but you'll see that these things do happen (even if it's very rare).
Speaking of the acting categories, something tells me they're not as fluid as they may appear, in the case of Dallas Buyers Club specifically, which received no recognition from the BAFTA's. While this won't hurt Jared Leto's status as de-factor Best Supporting Actor winner (the man he was replaced with was not a viable Oscar contender, so no worries there), the same can not be said for Matthew McConaughey. If Dallas Buyers Club was present in any of the other categories, I'd say that there was nothing to worry about, but since it was entirely shut out, McConaughey has the entire British voting block against him. This is problematic because his competition is in the form of not only the critical favorite (Ejiofor), but in Leonardo DiCaprio. DiCaprio is logically the biggest threat.
He has been winning Comedy actor awards while McConaughey has been winning Drama ones. The only time McConaughey has won over DiCaprio was at SAG, where DiCaprio wasn't even nominated. However, this was only because Wolf of Wall Street wasn't screened in time by the voting actors; you can certainly bet they would have nominated DiCaprio had it been screened, because they even nominated him for J.Edgar back in 2011; he's very respected amongst his fellow actors. Though this won't be a true test of McConaughey vs. DiCaprio (sadly we won't know that until the Oscars, where they are both nominated against each other for the first time all season), what the BAFTA's will reveal is if DiCaprio can challenge McConaughey. If Ejiofor wins, the Oscar is McConaughey's (unless by some miracle 12 Years A Slave can garner the popularity amongst voters that Dallas Buyers Club has, and though it deserves it, it won't). But if Leo wins, then he might just finally get that ever elusive Oscar.
So, I've rambled on long enough. Sunday will be a pretty telling night for what the Oscars might hold. While the races won't be all tied up neatly, the competition will certainly be thinner than before, and we'll be closer to calling this whole mess to an end.
Here are my predictions (for any one that is still reading this):
(You can view the full list of nominees here for reference as you go through the list)
Best Picture:
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
Could Win: Gravity or American Hustle
Should Win: 12 Years A Slave
Best Director:
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could Win: Steve McQueen
Should Win: Both Cuaron and McQueen would make for deserving winners
Best British Film:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: Gravity
Best Actor:
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Could Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave (I'd be happy with Leo winning too, I guess)
Best Actress:
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Could Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Could Win: Without Jared Leto here, I don't see anyone else taking it but Fassy
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: 12 Years A Slave
Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Could Win: The Great Beauty
Should Win: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Animated Film:
Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: None of these films (I thought) are worthy of a win; that honor belongs to The Wind Rises, which wasn't nominated
Cinematography:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: No one is taking any techs away from Gravity
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis, Gravity or 12 Years A Slave
Production Design:
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: Behind the Candelabra
Should Win: American Hustle or Behind the Candelabra
Costume Design:
Will Win: The Invisible Woman
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: American Hustle
Film Editing:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Again, Gravity isn't losing a tech award
Should Win: Captain Phillips (I like Gravity but I don't want to see Captain Phillips go home a loser)
Makeup and Hair:
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: Behind the Candelabra
Should Win: American Hustle
Best Music:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Saving Mr. Banks or Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity or Captain Phillips
Best Sound:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Rush
Should Win: All Is Lost
Visual Effects:
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: Gravity
Rising Star Award:
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could Win: Lea Seydoux
Should Win: Lea or Lupita would make for good winners
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