Of course, the summer has been dominated (mainly) by buzz; none of the films that are being predicted to be heavyweights in the season have premiered to the masses yet, except for Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" (more on that later). Of the films predicted to do well this season, even fewer have had premieres at all ("Whiplash" had Sundance, "Foxcatcher" had Cannes, "Birdman" will open Venice in a week's time); we've mainly been restricted to pictures, hearsay and trailers.
So, where does that leave us now?
Roughly in the same place as it left us the last time, except not quite, because though a lot of these films haven't been seen yet, their position in the festival season says a lot about their potential power in the race, and a few new, interesting projects have popped up that may (or may not) affect the race.
So, let's get right into what's changed since we last talked Oscar:
Best Picture:
- The Weinstein Company's "The Imitation Game", to me, seems far too safe, boring and conventional to be the major Oscar player many are predicting it will be. I know the Academy loves WWII films, and I know Harvey Weinstein has a knack for campaigning for Oscars, so yes this is in their wheelhouse, but it just seems like there's so much on the horizon that is so much more innovative and exciting. The vibe I get from this is very "King's Speech", so in that sense, I could be very wrong and the Academy could go on and totally go for it. It's got a very Oscar friendly release date (Nov 21st), and will be premiering at the Toronto Film Festival.
- Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" is still shrouded in mystery, save for a very low quality image released from the film and the report that it will premiere as the centerpiece of the New York Film Festival.
- Brad Pitt's WWII drama "Fury" has changed its release date to October 17th (instead of November 14th); originally it was going to have to battle the new Hunger Games film and "Interstellar" at the box office, but now things look much better for its box office potential and possible Oscar hopes.
- The Stephen Hawking biopic/adaptation of ex-wife Jane Hawking's auto-biography "Traveling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen" has both a trailer and is reportedly going to be touted at the Toronto Film Festival. It has an Oscar friendly release date (November 7th). It seems to be going in the direction of "A Beautiful Mind", and we all know how that turned out.
- Jason Reitman's "Men, Women and Children" will be premiering at the Toronto Film Festival. Reitman was behind "Juno" and "Up in the Air", 2 films that received tons of award attention. The film is based on the book of the same name, and from the trailer, looks to be one of the more interesting films coming out this year. This would be Reitman's return to the races after missing out for 2011's "Young Adult" and last year's "Labor Day".
- "Birdman" is opening the Venice Film Festival. The rest of the line-up isn't as high profile, so expect it to make a big splash. It's also going to be closing the New York Film Festival.
- "Selma", a film based on the 1965 voting rights march to Montgomery will have a limited qualifying release on Christmas before expanding wide on January 9th. That release strategy has me worried but the film could benefit from Oprah Winfrey's involvement.
Best Actor:
- "Get On Up" has received a decent amount of acclaim for the film itself, however, the most enthusiastic praise has gone to Chadwick Boseman's performance as James Brown. Actors playing other famous people often gets rewarded. He would need substantial help from the major critics to really put him on the map, and a nod from the Golden Globes in the Musical and Comedy category seems likely.
- Eddie Redmayne probably came thiiiiiiiis close to landing a Best Supporting Actor nomination for "Les Misables" in 2012, but his role as Stephen Hawking in "The Theory of Everything" looks to be the one that gives him the Oscar breakthrough. It's a biopic, and a physically demanding role, all of which bode well for potential recognition.
- Jack O'Connell received positive notices from that first screening of Jolie's "Unbroken", being favorably compared to Anton Yelchin. Unfortunately, Yelchin is an actor that has not received Academy recognition (so take that as you will). It's also reportedly a very internalized performance (relying on facial expressions rather than words).
- Ben Affleck is making rounds discussing his performance in Fincher's "Gone Girl". Though many are predicting this to be Rosamund Pike's big breakout, Affleck remains one of the more mysterious aspects of the film. He's never really had an acting showcase, and after winning an Oscar for "Argo" and sympathy for being "snubbed" in the Director's category, he could surprise here.
- Michael Keaton is looking like more and more of a lock with the added festival dates to Birdman's release schedule.
- David Oyelowo will be playing Martin Luther King Jr. in "Selma". A very buzzy role and the fact he was warmly received in last year's "The Butler" give him some footing in the race.
- First images from Tim Burton's "Big Eyes" continue the buzz for Amy Adams. Could very well be her year.
- "Wild" will be premiering at the Toronto Film Festival. Witherspoon also serves as a producer on Fincher's Gone Girl, and has a supporting role in Inherent Vice. She's going to be everywhere this year; it's time for a Reese Witherspoon comeback.
- Felicity Jones has been on the verge of a breakthrough since "Like Crazy" in 2011. Her role as Stephen Hawking's wife Jane looks to be very promising; the screenplay is adapted from Jane's auto-biography, so I'm sure meaty opportunities for Jones will follow. However, will she be campaigned in supporting (as Jennifer Connelly was for A Beautiful Mind) or lead?
- Meryl Streep's newly Sondheim penned song has been cut from "Into the Woods". I had originally predicted her here based on the fact he had written the song special for her, and the fact she's Meryl Streep. However, this is truly an ensemble piece and with the exclusion of this (assumingly) "clip" moment, it will cut into her screen time, so a shift to the Supporting category may be imminent (which will definitely affect co-stars Emily Blunt's and Anna Kendrick's chances).
- Pundits are really high on Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game; she looks super supportive in that trailer, and is getting some great notices from her work in "Begin Again". Weinstein may be able to get her in, especially with a weak field.
- Patricia Arquette could be the lone actor to get recognition for "Boyhood"; Supporting Actress loves "the mother" roles, and the fact she lets herself age over a 12 year period on screen gives her arc/campaign some clout.
- Logan Lerman is building some serious buzz for Fury, and after being warmly embraced in "The Perks of Being A Wallflower", he could win his first nomination here. Supporting Actor is kinder to young men unlike Lead Actor.
- 2 time nominee Tom Wilkinson is set to play President Lyndon B. Johnson in Selma.
- Takamasa Ishihara was the recipient of some good buzz from that screening of Unbroken. Supporting Actor loves "villain" roles, but according to the report from that same screening, he has a sympathetic character arc, which could add to his performance (complex "villains" are always more interesting), which will help his chances.
- Mark Ruffalo's Emmy award presence bodes well for his imminent Oscar presence for "Foxcatcher"; could he be our winner?
- "Whiplash" will be premiering at both the New York and Toronto film festival, which will help J.K. Simmons' chances at being a mainstay in this category this season, after being unfairly snubbed for 2007's "Juno".
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