State of the Oscar Race

The Toronto Film Festival may be over, but awards season is just getting started. A bunch of potential Oscar players made a splash to the delight of critics and bloggers everywhere.

There were some notable surprises, but nothing that truly bombed; save for a few films, the big names more or less performed how they were expected to.

And then there were some films (the Rooney Mara/Cate Blanchett drama "Carol" for one) that decided to skip the festival altogether. That hardly matters; With Harvey Weinstein behind you, your film is assured some kind of nomination.

Here are a few of the biggest takeaways post-TIFF; Where do the current players stand?
Team "Spotlight"

I don't think there was a single person who watched the trailer for "Spotlight" and screamed: OSCARS!!!!! But that's the funny thing about awards season, sometimes it's the films that no one really looks at that have the most resonance.

Now, it is still early, but other than People's Choice Award winner "Room", I don't think there was a film at the festival that was embraced with such open arms. Benefitting from the pedigree of performers (Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo and Rachel McAdams just to name a few), a beloved director/screenwriter (Tom McCarthy) and the 'based on a true story' lead in (the film is based on The Boston Globe's investigation into the Massachusetts Catholic sex abuse scandal) it's clear to see why there would be an inkling that voters would enjoy this. But the reviews have been rapturous, with Variety giving it a highly positive review following a screening at Venice. Though it lost the big prize at TIFF, it came in third place, and "Spotlight" seems like this year's "Argo": the starry ensemble-crowdpleaser that everyone can rally behind, which is a good thing going into Oscar nominations. There seems to be a consensus that last year's Best Actor bridesmaid, Michael Keaton, will earn his second consecutive nomination, with Mark Ruffalo and perhaps even Rachel McAdams could join him as nominees.

Possible Nominations: Best Picture, Director (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Keaton), Original Screenplay (Josh Singer, McCarthy), Editing (Tom McArdle)

Longshots: Actor (Ruffalo), Supporting Actress (McAdams)

Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay in "Room"

Brie Larson has been an actress on the verge of breaking out for awhile now, but has remained largely under the radar. After being consistently great in Showtime's "The United States of Tara", Larson shined in "21 Jump Street" and delivered an Oscar-worthy performance in the little seen (but incredible) "Short Term 12". With "Room", this might be her moment (FINALLY), along with co-star Jacob Tremblay, both of whom are winning the reviews of a lifetime with their performances in the TIFF People's Choice Award winner. The unexpected win over high profile projects doesn't just bode well for Larson's and Tremblay's performances, but the film as a whole; It's another crowdpleaser (the film had several standing ovations following screenings at the film festival). Distributor A24 has tried to play the Oscar game (unsuccessfully) for a few years now, with films like "Spring Breakers" and "A Most Violent Year", but this might be the film that takes them to the finish line.

Possible Nominations: Best Picture, Actress (Larson), Supporting Actress (Joan Allen), Adapted Screenplay (Emma Donoghue)

Longshots: Actor/Supporting Actor (Jacob Tremblay), Supporting Actor (William H. Macy), Editing (Nathan Nugent)

Alicia Vikander Owns "The Danish Girl"

What was meant to be Eddie Redmayne's afterglow nomination/potential win, seems to be a better showcase for current "It" Girl Alicia Vikander. After a banner year with "Ex-Machina", "Testament of Youth" and "The Man From U.N.C.L.E.", her performance as the supportive wife in "The Danish Girl" seems to be enough to win the newcomer her first career nomination (and maybe even a win). We all know Oscar loves the supportive wife character in biopics (look no further to them nominating Felicity Jones last year in "The Theory of Everything"), but the film seems to give Vikander a lot more to work with than simply standing by her husband.

As for Redmayne, his performance as transgender legend Lili Elbe is winning the usual raves, but the fact he's the current winner for Best Actor may keep him from repeating. Not to mention that the film seems to be more of director Tom Hooper's carefully crafted, yet too understated, handling. The discussion concerning transgender rights has only gotten louder in the past year, but the controversy concerning the casting of a cisgendered male in the role of a trans woman is certainly disrespectful when there are plenty of trans actresses who could act the part of Elbe. Whether the Academy will let that influence their decision to recognize the film or not, remains to be seen. What you can bet on, however, is Vikander rounding out the final five actresses.

Possible Nominations: Actor (Redmayne), Actress (Vikander), Adapted Screenplay (Lucinda Coxen), Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score

Longshots: Picture, Editing (Melanie Ann Oliver), Cinematography (Danny Cohen), Director (Hooper).

Saoirse Ronan Grows Up in "Brooklyn"

The trailer for "Brooklyn" was enough to break my heart into a million pieces, so it's a no brainer that the film is winning critics over with each screening. An old-fashioned coming of age love story focused on a young Irish immigrant (Ronan) who finds success and love in America with the adorable, and Italian, Tony (Emory Cohen). But when she's called back home by her mother, she rediscovers her love for her native country, and attention from a potential suitor (Domhnall Gleeson) that has her questioning whether she'll go back to America and stay. The bestselling novel of the same name (adapted by Nick Hornby) was something I couldn't put down, and I can assure that based on the reviews, the film has the same power that the book had.

Ronan, a previous Oscar nominee for "Atonement" seems to have finally found a role that has guided her from child star to leading lady. Ever since the film premiered at Sundance, she has been winning raves, with many placing her in their predictions for Best Actress. The film's old school, period, charms could also sway voters to place it high on their predictions for Picture, and potentially the craft categories. Hornby (a previous nominee in the Screenplay category for "An Education") could also find love after missing last year for "Wild".

Possible Nominations: Picture, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Julie Walters), Adapted Screenplay (Hornby), Costume Design, Production Design

Longshots: Cinematography (Yves Bélanger)

Cate Blanchett's Double Play for "Truth" and "Carol"

After winning in 2013 for "Blue Jasmine", Blanchett is back with two potential Best Actress opportunities: The lesbian/period drama "Carol" and the journalism drama "Truth". Both provide meaty opportunities for the actress, and are winning her some of the best reviews of her career. But which film will they recognize her for?

"Carol", directed by Todd Haynes ("Far From Heaven", "Safe", "Velvet Goldmine") is being backed by Harvey Weinstein, who will undoubtedly mount a fierce campaign. He's even downgraded co-star Rooney Mara to Supporting Actress (after she won Best Actress at Cannes) to make way for Blanchett, and avoided TIFF following the announcement that "Truth" was premiering there. The film's period element also bolster its chances; the craft categories could raise enthusiasm for the film overall.  However, "Truth" seems like more of a showcase for Blanchett, whereas "Carol" seems like more of a duet between her and Mara. It'll be interesting to see how the films perform post-festival. "Carol", which had an original release date of Christmas, has been moved up to November and will premiere at the New York Film Festival.

Possible Nominations ("Carol"): Actress (Blanchett), Supporting Actress (Mara), Costume Design, Production Design

Longshots ("Carol"): Picture, Director (Haynes), Supporting Actor (Kyle Chandler), Cinematography (Edward Lachman), Score (Carter Burwell)

Possible Nominations ("Truth"): Actress (Blanchett)

Longshots ("Truth"): Picture, Actor (Robert Redford)

Johnny Depp's Comeback

 It's been several years since Johnny Depp has made a good movie or been recognized by the Academy; You'd have to go back to "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street". After wallowing around in commercial and critical flops, Depp's role as convicted gangster Whitey Bulger has hit a sweet spot with movie-goers (the film made a whopping $24 million in its first weekend). He could make an impression on voters; critics have been calling his performance "the best of his career", and we all know how Oscar feels about actors coming back to critical acclaim after a string of flops. There's also been enthusiasm for co-star Joel Edgerton's work, which could find love in the Supporting Actor category. The film being a critical and box office success only help its chances.

Possible Nominations: Actor (Depp), Supporting Actor (Edgerton), Makeup and Hairstyling,

Longshots: Picture, Adapted Screenplay (Jez Butterworth, Mark Mallouk)