First Round of Industry & Critics' Awards: What Do They Tell Us?

It's that time of the year. After consistent guessing and predicting, we are finally starting to get a look at what films truly have the heat going into the Oscar race... at least for right now.

With the Independent Spirit Awards announcing their nominees last week, the Gotham Awards awarding their winners a few days ago, and now announcements from The National Board of Review and The New York Film Critics Circle, things are starting to fall in place... well sort of.

To be fair, these precursors do not decide the Oscars. If you remember back in 2010 when "The Social Network" won every critics award for Best Picture there was, and then went on to lose the Producer's Guild, SAG Ensemble Award and the Oscar, that fact is all too clear in your mind. But again, why these awards are important is because they show what films have heat and what films don't. They can sometimes translate into Oscar success ("The Artist" in 2011, for example) but in a mixed bag of a year like this one, where there is no clear consensus, it's a total toss up.

So, let's examine the first round of winners, shall we?




The National Board of Review:

Best Picture: "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Best Director: Ridley Scott, "The Martian"
Best Actor: Matt Damon, "The Martian"
Best Actress: Brie Larson, "Room"
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, "Creed"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight"
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, "The Hateful Eight"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Drew Goddard, "The Martian"
Best Animated Feature: "Inside Out"
Best Breakthrough Performance: TIE! Jacob Tremblay, "Room" & Abraham Attah, "Beasts of No Nation"
Best Directorial Debut: Jonas Carpingano, "Mediterranea"
Best Foreign Language Film: "Son of Saul"
Best Documentary: "Amy"
Best Ensemble: "The Big Short"
Spotlight Award: "Sicario"
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: "Beasts of No Nation" & "Mustang"
Top 10 Films: "Bridge of Spies," "Creed," "The Hateful Eight," "Inside Out," "Spotlight," "The Martian," "Room," "Sicario," "Straight Outta Compton"

So, an important note here: The NBR are always very subversive with their awards. They tend to stay away from the 'presumed' frontrunners of the race and anoint other films. Last year, they gave their top prize to "A Most Violent Year," a film that was ultimately a no show in the Oscars' final lineup. That being said, this is a great win for "Mad Max," a critically acclaimed genre film that truly needs all the mentions it can get if it has any hopes of being present in round 2 (Globes, SAG, etc).

I'm truly befuddled by all of this love for "The Martian." It's a fine film, but is this really one of our frontrunners? It's a popular film, featuring a bankable movie star that made a lot of money at the box office. That fact should not be underestimated, especially since so many of the Oscar contenders have been underperforming in terms of box office.

Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay's mentions are good news for "Room," a film that has been losing a little bit of steam since it won that award at TIFF. I think it's a film that will underperform in terms of awards expectations, but it's still a formidable film. Larson's win here should be one of many in the coming season. It feels like the race is between here and Saoirse Ronan, with Jennifer Lawrence waiting in the wings.

"Creed" has really come up in a huge way, in a little amount of time. That stunning box office performance, partnered with the glowing reviews should make for some good hype come Oscars. I feel like Stallone is in, based on the actual performance and the nostalgia from past "Rocky" flicks. Michael B. Jordan could also find himself present in a very curiously weak Best Actor year. Lets hope he gives Leo a run for his money come next year.

I'm happy "Sicario" is getting mentioned, even if it's in the bottom tier of awards. I really wish it was a bigger presence in the Oscar race, because it's so good. And that love for "The Hateful Eight" probably has a lot to do with the fact that it's the last film the NBR screened; the reactions I'm hearing range anywhere from rapturous to 'meh.' Let's just hope it's better than "Django Unchained."

The New York Film Critics Circle:

Best Picture: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes, "Carol"
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, "Spotlight"
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan, "Brooklyn"
Best Supporting Actress: Kristen Stewart, "Clouds of Sils Maria"
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies"
Best Screenplay: Phyllis Nagy, "Carol"
Best Cinematography: Edward Lachman, "Carol"
Best First Film: "Son of Saul"
Best Animated Film: "Inside Out"
Best Documentary: "In Jackson Heights"
Best Foreign Language Film: "Timbuktu"

Curious that Michael Keaton wins in Actor, when it's been deemed more of a supporting turn in an ensemble performance; There's a not a true lead in "Spotlight" so this isn't exactly wrong. The NYFCC always go their own way, however, so this doesn't suddenly mean that Keaton will be campaigned in Actor (how funny would it be if he did, though? Given the competitiveness of Supporting Actor this year).

SAOIRSE RONAN!! Wow, "Brookyn" is really coming on strong in a big way, from the reviews, to the surprising box office. Ronan is Brie Larson's biggest competition right now, and a huge threat in terms of Oscar. She's a previous nominee for "Atonement" and this is a beloved performance in a beloved film that's sure to be popular in Best Picture votes. That goes a long way. (NOTE: Interesting that Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara weren't mentioned, even in a tie, given the "Carol" love).

I'm here for all this "Carol" love. 4 wins is huge, and that cinematography win is highly deserved; It might just be the most beautifully photographed film I've ever watched, and the brilliant screenplay adaptation also is a pleasant sight to see amongst the winners list. I'm hoping that Haynes' inclusion could here result in a snowball effect to his first ever, long overdue, first Best Director nomination at the Oscars. Then again, maybe the NYFCC just really liked "Carol?" Nevertheless, the film really is picking up steam, isn't it?

Kristen Stewart!!! Wow, I'm ecstatic about this choice. The NYFF are usually quite good about championing performances like this one. The little seen "Clouds of Sils Maria" is brilliant, and Stewart is 100% deserving of this win, and would make an excellent Oscar nominee. I was pleased to see her win the César last year, and make history as the first American Actress to win one. If other critics can fall in line with rewarding her (and not nominating category frauds Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander), she could find herself in the final Oscar lineup (though maybe I'm getting ahead of myself). This could be her one win all season, but what a win it is.

The win for "Inside Out" is completely deserved, though predictable. Expect it to steamroll the season.

Gotham Awards:

Best Picture: "Spotlight"
Best Documentary: "The Look of Silence"
Best Screenplay: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, "Spotlight"
Best Actor: Paul Dano, "Love & Mercy"
Best Actress: Bel Powley, "The Diary of A Teenage Girl"
Breakthrough Actor: Mya Taylor, "Tangerine"

"Spotlight" hardly needed the boost from the very independent Gothams, but wins here don't hurt its chances. Interesting choices with Bel Powley (who is a dark horse in Best Actress) and Paul Dano (who seems to be shortlisted in Supporting Actor on a number of pundits' charts). Here's to hoping people keep banging the drum for Mya Taylor as well, who is exceptional in "Tangerine."