Looking back, however, it seems as if the true race to win was not between Blanchett and Adams, nor McConaughey and DiCaprio (with some heat from Ejiofor), but between Lupita Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence.
It's easy to see why we've been fooled into thinking Nyong'o was our surefire Supporting Actress winner all season. Given the category's history with "discovering actresses" (this is Nyong'o's first big screen performance) and the level of acclaim the performance has won, it seemed to be an easy hole in one. Also, add in the fact that this was supposed to be Jennifer Lawrence's "afterglow nomination"; she won an Oscar last year for her leading role in Silver Lining's Playbook. But look closely, and you'll see it's been back and forth between the girls all season; neither one of them has exactly maintained dominance over the other.
When the New York Film Critics awarded Jennifer Lawrence their Best Supporting Actress award, it seemed like more of an enthusiasm for the film as a whole (they also gave American Hustle a Screenplay and Picture award) than that particular performance. Worries lessened when Lupita won the LAFCA, and a million other film critics awards; things seemed to be settling in place with Nyong'o reclaiming her title as the favorite. That National Society of Film Critics win for Lawrence still escapes me, but the Golden Globe win was to be expected; the Globes love the big stars, and Lawrence is a bigger star than Nyong'o is at the moment.
The Screen Actors Guild predictably went with Nyong'o as their choice for Supporting Actress, and while that's enough to say she would prevail over Lawrence at the Oscars, a second look disproves that theory. Lawrence did not exactly lose that night; she was honored with the cast of American Hustle (Adams, Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper..) when the film won Best Ensemble (again, predictably). So you can say that:
1.) They simply liked Nyong'o better than Jennifer Lawrence, and preferred to award the ensemble of Hustle instead of one player.
OR
2.) SAG copped out; By rewarding Nyong'o in Supporting and Lawrence in Ensemble, both actresses were technically winners, thus the guild didn't exactly have to choose.
If you're going with #2's logic (as I'm starting to) than let me shift your attention to Jennifer Lawrence's BAFTA win over Lupita Nyong'o, and the Globes. Forget Lupita's win at SAG for a moment, and let me point out that every time at a (major) awards show (again, not counting SAG) when voters have been forced to choose JLaw or Lupita, they've gone with JLaw. Again, there is a slight possibility SAG voters chose Nyong'o in S. Actress and Hustle in Ensemble with the theory that they could honor both performances.
The Globes (again) don't matter really because they hold no stigma in the Academy, but BAFTA voters are part of the Academy. So BAFTA members, SAG members, producers, cinematographers, directors, etc will be voting on every category, including Supporting Actress. The British contingent obviously is pro-Lawrence, and while SAG did choose Nyong'o, they also chose Lawrence as part of the ensemble; they'll be forced to choose between the two here. If 12 Years A Slave is going to win Best Picture, Gravity Director, McConaughey Actor, Blanchett Actress, and Leto S. Actor, than what (major) award is American Hustle going to win? You could argue Screenplay, but it's looking to be Spike Jonze's Her at the moment; is a film that has been admittedly celebrated by Academy members, with 10 nominations really not going to win a major award?
It's certainly possible that American Hustle could win the Costume award, and that's it. But methinks that while Lupita is still the frontrunner, she faces dangerously stiff competition from Jennifer Lawrence, who once again starred in the highest grossing live action film of 2013 (Catching Fire). Lawrence is the Julia Roberts of her time, and many believe the Meryl Streep of her generation. This is an actress that has scored 3 Oscar nominations (and 1 win) at the age of 23. She's admired by not only industry members, but her peers, and the performance is disturbingly popular, and plays to her comedic strengths.
The race that sort of mirrors this (in terms of award tallies) was 2011's Best Actress race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. For those of you who don't remember, Streep's performance in The Iron Lady had been deemed her best performance in years, not to mention she had Harvey Weinstein competing for her, which led her to a (not so shocking) Golden Globe win. Viola Davis scored her second nomination, and the best reviews of her career, and would go on to win SAG. People scoffed at Streep's win at the BAFTA's, simply because Davis' film, The Help, was not really embraced there. But when Streep won the Oscar, it all made sense; it had been Streep's from the beginning. Could we be facing a similar situation here? Could Jennifer Lawrence's Rosalyn be as irresistible to voters as Streep playing Margaret Thatcher?
Before I shut up, here's the breakdown:
For Lupita: LFCA, SAG, rave reviews, debut performance, charming personality, consistent A-game on red carpets
Against Lupita: BAFTA, NYFCC, NFCS losses, Jennifer Lawrence's star power, 12 Years A Slave being deemed "too hard to sit through" by voters; not enough people seeing it.
For Jennifer: NYFCC, NFCS, Globe, BAFTA wins, rave reviews, popular film, star power, Hunger Games Box office, popular
Against Jennifer: SAG loss, She just won last year
And now I'll ask you, what do you think? Is this Jennifer's race? Or Lupita's to win?
If you need some help, here are clips to give you some context.
Lupita Nyong'o as Patsey
No comments:
Post a Comment