Golden Globe Predictions: Boyhood vs. Selma?

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this has been the strangest Oscar season in recent history. All of the contenders have been seen, and though "Boyhood" cleaned up the critic's awards, we still don't have a true frontrunner (remember, critics don't vote for the Oscars, just ask "The Social Network"). Next Sunday, the first major awards group from phase 2 (post-critics) will announce their winners: The Golden Globes. 

In recent years, the Globes have become a pretty substantial precursor, at least in predicting the nominees (sometimes you can win a Golden Globe and it doesn't really do much for winning momentum, ex: Jessica Chastain of "Zero Dark Thirty"). This year especially, the Globes seem to be trying to establish themselves as a serious awards body; gone is the group who nominated Angelina Jolie for just about anything ("The Tourist"); she and "Unbroken" were completely shut out this year in favor of non-household names such as Ava DuVernay ("Selma"). 

Speaking of DuVernay, her film is picking up a lot of (deserved) steam in this race, giving "Boyhood" quite the run for its money, heading into phase 2. That late release date barred its inclusion from many of the critic's awards and SAG, but its recognition at the Globes, the worldwide acclaim and assured box office success should give it all it needs to clean up nomination-wise at the Oscars in the coming weeks. If Richard Linklater and company have anyone to worry about at the Globes next Sunday, its team "Selma". 

Read my predictions, complete with commentary, below.

Best Screenplay: 

• Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
• Gillian Flynn, "Gone Girl"
• Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., "Birdman" 
• Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
• Graham Moore, "The Imitation Game" 

Can I just stop for a moment and say this is an exceptional line up? Of the group, I enjoyed Anderson's the most, which was witty and engagingly funny, but I think the scope and overall appreciation for Linklater's achievement may edge him to a win. I also wouldn't be too shocked if "Birdman" swooped in and stole this either. 

Who Will Win: "Boyhood"

Who Could Win: "Birdman"

Who Should Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

Best Original Score: 

• Alexandre Desplat, "The Imitation Game"
• Jóhann Jóhannsson, "The Theory of Everything"
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, "Gone Girl"
• Antonio Sánchez, "Birdman"
• Hans Zimmer, "Interstellar" 

Another great field of deserving nominees. Though I think they'll go with the conventional choices (Desplat or Jóhannsson) I would love it if Reznor & Ross or Sánchez took this. As beautiful as the other scores may be, Sánchez's improvisatory score and the work of Reznor and Ross add so much to their respective films' narratives, not just queue emotion, which is what a film's score is supposed to do.

Who Will Win: "Theory of Everything"

Who Could Win: "The Imitation Game"

Who Should Win: "Gone Girl" or "Birdman"

Best Original Song: 

• Big Eyes- Lana Del Rey, "Big Eyes"
• Glory- John Legend, "Selma"
• Mercy Is- Patti Smith & Lenny Kaye, "Noah"
• Opportunity- Greg Kurstin, Sia, Will Gluck, "Annie"
• Yellow Flicker Beat- Lorde, "The Hunger Games- Mockingjay: Part 1"

I (admittedly) haven't heard the songs from "Annie" or "Noah", but I think the ones to watch are Lorde, Legend and Del Rey who benefits from being "snubbed" for Young and Beautiful. The frustrating part is, Del Rey's other song for the film (I Can Fly) is so much better. 

Who Will Win: "Selma"

Who Could Win: "Hunger Games" 

Who Should Win: "Selma" or "Hunger Games"

Best Animated Film:

• "Big Hero 6"
• "The Book of Life"
• "The Boxtrolls"
• "How to Train Your Dragon 2"
• "The Lego Movie"

The runaway favorite is definitely "The Lego Movie", which I believe will repeat its eventual win here with a win at the Oscars. It has the benefit of being a critical favorite, and one of the biggest hits of the year. 

Who Will Win: "The Lego Movie"

Who Could Win: "Big Hero 6"

Who Should Win: "How to Train Your Dragon 2"

Best Foreign Language Film: 

• "Force Majeure"
• "Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem" 
• "Ida"
• "Leviathan"
• "Tangerines" 

Who Will Win: "Leviathan" 

Who Could Win: "Ida"

Who Should Win: "Leviathan" 

Best Supporting Actor:

• Robert DuVall, "The Judge"
• Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
• Edward Norton, "Birdman"
• Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
• J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash" 

Simmons has been the undisputed frontrunner of this very weak category all year, since Sundance. Don't expect that to change. 

Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons

Who Could Win: N/A

Who Should Win: Edward Norton

Best Supporting Actress: 

• Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
• Jessica Chastain, "A Most Violent Year"
• Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
• Emma Stone, "Birdman"
• Meryl Streep, "Into the Woods"

Another undisputed frontrunner since her film premiered; start engraving the Oscar now Academy members. Patricia Arquette is coming. 

Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette

Who Could Win: N/A

Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette 

Best Actor: Comedy or Musical- 

• Ralph Fiennes, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
• Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
• Bill Murray, "St. Vincent"
• Joaquin Phoenix, "Inherent Vice"
• Christoph Waltz, "Big Eyes"

People love "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and more importantly, people love Ralph Fiennes in it. This may be the only major award, and the only time to award Fiennes for his comedically adroit work, so if anyone is going to beat Michael Keaton, it'll be him. That being said, I still think Keaton takes it, though he clearly belongs in the drama category..

Who Will Win: Michael Keaton

Who Could Win: Ralph Fiennes

Who Should Win: Ralph Fiennes

Best Actor: Drama- 

• Steve Carrell, "Foxcatcher" 
• Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
• Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler"
• David Oyelowo, "Selma"
• Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

Oyelowo blows everyone away in this category filled with very overrated performances (except Gyllenhaal). I think he stands a good chance to win, but the very showy Redmayne may be too conventional for the Globes to pass up, and Cumberbatch's international appeal + being backed by Weinstein make him a huge dark horse.

Who Will Win: David Oyelowo

Who Could Win: Eddie Redmayne or Benedict Cumberbatch

Who Should Win: David Oyelowo

Best Actress: Comedy or Musical-

• Amy Adams, "Big Eyes"
• Emily Blunt, "Into the Woods"
• Helen Mirren, "The Hundred Foot Journey"
• Julianne Moore, "Maps to the Stars"
• Quvenzhané Wallis, "Annie"

Blunt is a Globe favorite (remember when they nominated her for "The Young Victoria", Devil Wears Prada" and "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"?) so I think she'll take it. But Moore being a double nominee means she could also win ala Kate Winslet back in the year of "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road". Either way, both performances are great, personal favorites of mine, so I'll be happy with either one of them winning.

Who Will Win: Emily Blunt

Who Could Win: Julianne Moore

Who Should Win: Emily Blunt or Julianne Moore

Best Actress: Drama-

• Jennifer Aniston, "Cake"
• Felicity Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
• Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
• Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"
• Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"

Julianne Moore will rightly begin her march towards Oscar here. There's talk of Aniston maybe spoiling her chances given all of the hype and goodwill she's built up in the industry, and if it were to happen anywhere, here would be the most probable place; despite leaving Jolie off of their nominees, the Globes are known to love big stars. But I believe this is Moore's year.

Who Will Win: Julianne Moore

Who Could Win: Jennifer Aniston 

Who Should Win: Reese Witherspoon or Rosamund Pike

Best Director:

• Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
• Ava DuVernay, "Selma"
• David Fincher, "Gone Girl"
• Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
• Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"

This is Linklater's to lose. Plain and simple. 

Who Will Win: Richard Linklater

Who Could Win: Ava DuVernay

Who Should Win: Richard Linklater or Ava DuVernay 

Best Picture: Comedy or Musical- 

• "Birdman"
• "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
• "Into the Woods"
• "Pride"
• "St. Vincent"

The prestige of "Birdman" makes it an obvious choice, but as I mentioned before, people really love "The Grand Budapest Hotel". It could go either way, honestly, but since this is the Comedy category, I do believe Budapest should win on that alone. 

Who Will Win: "Birdman"

Who Could Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

Who Should Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

Best Picture: Drama-

• "Boyhood"
• "Foxcatcher"
• "The Imitation Game"
• "Selma"
• "The Theory of Everything"

Boyhood's critical consensus and general appreciation makes it the default choice, but "Selma" really is coming on strong, and I think its a formidable foe. I think it will show more strength at the Oscars once it's expanded in theaters and reaped in some $$$ and more buzz, but don't count it out here as a dark horse.

Who Will Win: "Boyhood"

Who Could Win: "Selma"

Who Should Win: "Selma"