PGA Nominees: Selma Snubbed

When it comes to predicting the Oscar's Best Picture line up, the Producer's Guild is the most important precursor there is. They're usually pretty accurate, though there are often 1 or 2 that miss with Oscar (last year's "Blue Jasmine", 2012's "Skyfall", 2011's "Bridesmaids").

The biggest surprise looking at this year's list of nominees, is in the inclusion of Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper" and Dan Gilroy's "Nightcrawler"  and the exclusion of Ava DuVernay's "Selma". In the case of Nightcrawler, the film seems to be beloved by many; Jake Gyllenhaal's performance has received substantial acclaim and the film itself is popping up in many other Best Picture lists, but it's always been perceived as an Oscar play for Gyllenhaal and not a serious Best Picture play. American Sniper, on the other hand, has received some positive reviews (mainly for leading man Bradley Cooper) and won big with the NBR, but hasn't really popped up anywhere else. Eastwood always registers better with the Academy, however, so I guess it shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

But the fact it made it in over the universally acclaimed Selma, is shocking to me, and hopefully not telling of what's to come with Oscar. Both films have yet to expand in wide release, but have been doing very well at the box office. If anything, I think Selma will eventually edge out Nightcrawler come Oscar morning.

Despite raking in some major money over the holidays, neither Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" or Rob Marshall's "Into the Woods" could find any love here. In the case of Jolie, her film failed to live up to the monumental expectations dumped upon it as the frontrunner from the moment it was announced. Woods, on the other hand, received some great notices, but not as a Best Picture play. That shouldn't keep it from receiving attention for Meryl Streep and the craft/tech work.

The big winner though, is "The Grand Budapest Hotel", which has been receiving just about every nod it needed to overcome its early release date, including SAG, the Globes and now the PGA. I think it has what it takes to be one of the film's with the most nominations. And "Whiplash", once seen as a vehicle for eventual Best Supporting Actor winner J.K. Simmons, could squeak in on passion as "the little indie that could". It'll be interesting to see what eventually ends up on Oscar's shortlist.

See the full list of nominees below.

• "American Sniper" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
• "Birdman" (Fox Searchlight)
• "Boyhood" (IFC Pictures)
• "Foxcatcher" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• "Gone Girl" (20th Century Fox)
• "The Grand Budapest Hotel" (Fox Searchlight)
• "The Imitation Game" (The Weinstein Company)
• "Nightcrawler" (Open Road Films)
• "The Theory of Everything" (Focus Features)
• "Whiplash" (Sony Pictures Classics)