"Birdman" Poised to Win Best Picture

In what must be the most unexpected surge towards Best Picture in recent history, director Alejandro González Iñárritu picked up the big win at last night's DGA awards, fresh off of his film's wins with the PGA and SAG a few weeks ago. Though it certainly seemed like this would b Richard Linklater's trophy to lose, "Birdman" has solidified itself as the film to beat for the top prize with the Oscars in a few weeks.

"Boyhood" and Birdman were both critically acclaimed films, and of the Best Picture nominees, they're two of the better choices (Birdman made my top 10 list, actually, with Boyhood ranking in the top 20).

Now, it's important to note that just like with the PGA, the DGA does not always choose the winner. However, it's an important indicator of where the heat and passion is in the race. So, for example, in the year of "Argo", Ben Affleck won at the DGA, however, he was not even nominated in Oscar's lineup of Best Directors. Argo did go on to win Best Picture though. That being said, the DGA has matched with Oscar a lot more often than not over the years; you'd have to go back all the way to 1985 when Steven Spielberg won for "The Color Purple" to find a director who won the award and didn't win the Oscar. So yes, this is an extremely important precursor, but just like with anything else, there is room to surprise.

So, does that mean Birdman is our Best Picture winner? Probably. With the producers, actors and now the directors behind it, there's some substantial (guild) support that is lacking behind Boyhood. Of the guilds, only the editors have given Boyhood an award, which isn't anything to turn your nose up at but racked next to Birdman's scorecard, it's slightly less impressive.

The writers guild still have yet to announce their awards, and it'll be interesting to see if Linklater can edge a win against "The Grand Budapest Hotel". If he can't, then I'd say Boyhood is in trouble. But another group to watch out for is BAFTA, which announces tonight. Sometimes, they go their own way (awarding Jennifer Lawrence over Lupita Nyong'o last year) but sometimes, especially in competitive years like this one, they can really be useful at tipping the scale (Tilda Swinton winning here, and then eventually winning the Oscar in 2007 for example). So, if BAFTA goes with Birdman, I'd say it's all tied up. But say BAFTA goes with Boyhood, or even The Grand Budapest Hotel or "The Theory of Everything", I'd say there's still a race.

And in the case of The Theory of Everything, if Eddie Redmayne wins tonight (which he probably will, given this is a British group), then Michael Keaton's Best Actor chances are slim. Redmayne won at SAG, which should have been a cakewalk for Keaton given his career and credibility amongst his peers. Personally, I still think it's Keaton's to lose, but the transformative element of Redmayne's work may be too much to resist for voters. Keaton did win the (Comedy) Globe, and the lion's share of critics' prizes, he needs this win to stay alive in the race. Especially going up against someone as charming and eloquent as Redmayne, which counts for a lot when you bring them up on that stage to accept.

And as for that Bradley Cooper/"American Sniper" surge everyone was talking about, I'm not so sure if that can still happen. Though the film has its supporters, no major guild has rewarded the film outside of a nomination. And given all of the controversy, I'm not sure if the Academy is going to want to touch it, given their nominating it at all has ignited some very harsh, yet warranted responses. So if the DGA awarded Clint Eastwood last night, I'd say Cooper would be a real threat to spoil, but now it seems like he's just going to be the "happy to be here" nominee.

So, with the Oscars just a few weeks away, all eyes will be on BAFTA tonight to possibly put the cherry on top of this awards season.

Take a look at the updated awards tally here