Final Oscar Predictions: All the Categories

In just a few short hours, we’ll be able to finally put a cap on one of the most confusing Oscar races in recent history. After going months without a presumed frontrunner, “Boyhood” took the slot after winning the lion’s share of the critics’ prizes and critical acclaim. But despite its critical endorsement, something seemed off; no one seemed truly enthused about anointing Boyhood as the winner. For all of its revelatory scope (being filmed over a period of 12 years with the same actors), it’s a story we have heard dozens of times before. 

That feeling proved true, because as we moved into phase 2 (post-Oscar nominations/guild winners), it was Birdman that jumped in the driver’s seat, winning top honors from the Director’s, Actor’s and Producer’s Guilds. The only major guild award it has lost has been the British Academy Award (BAFTA) which went to Boyhood. Statistics will tell you that it’s between these two for the Best Picture win. 

But will it be a clean sweep? Will these two films dominate the ceremony? Hardly. It’s a competitive year, with a number of strong films threatening to spoil these two dog race. So, let’s a look through each category; Who will emerge the night’s biggest winner? 

Best Picture: 

As I said, “Boyhood” or “Birdman” will definitely be taking this prize. Of the two, Birdman has the edge because of its broad guild support. But in close years such as this, the BAFTA has been a key in deciding the winner. For example, 2007’s Supporting Actress winner Tilda Swinton was the farthest thing from a frontrunner. Stats would have told you Amy Ryan or Ruby Dee were going to win, but when Swinton won the BAFTA, the momentum in the race changed, and it was clear that the late surge was enough to push her to a win. Could it happen again here? Possibly. But the savviness of Birdman’s distributor Fox Searchlight, and the film’s industry appeal (it’s about actors) may be too much for voters to pass up. 

Best Director: 

Splits in Picture and Director happen much more often than people would care to admit, especially recently. Best Director has become the consolation prize for those who lose in Picture. So while Birdman is marching towards a Best Picture victory, I believe Boyhood’s Richard Linklater will win Best Director. Linklater has been working a very long time, and people respect him. That accounts for a lot, and his achievement for directing a film over 12 years is nothing to scoff at. 

Best Actor in a Leading Role: 

Another very competitive category; on one hand you have Eddie Redmayne playing Stephen Hawking in “The Theory of Everything”, and Michael Keaton in Best Picture frontrunner Birdman. Both Keaton and Redmayne have Golden Globes, but Redmayne edged out Keaton at the Screen Actor’s Guild and at the BAFTA’s. Keaton is a popular, hard working actor experiencing a comeback of sorts, but the stats point to Redmayne, who may be the only win of the night for his film. 

Best Actress in a Leading Role: 

Julianne Moore will win her first ever Oscar for “Still Alice” after dominating all season, and deservedly so. 

Best Supporting Actor: 

Is there an award J.K. Simmons hasn’t won for his work in “Whiplash” this season? Nope. Don’t expect that to change with Oscar. 

Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette has dominated this category in the same way that J.K. Simmons has with his. Her work in “Boyhood” will deservedly take home acting’s highest honor. 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

“The Imitation Game” won with the Writer’s Guild this past weekend, but it didn’t have to go up against “Whiplash” (where it was placed in the Original category). Though Whiplash is a popular film, this is the only category where The Imitation Game has a fighting chance, and the World War II film plays right into the Academy’s wheelhouse (it’s also being pushed by Harvey Weinstein). Expect it to win. 

Best Original Screenplay:

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” would probably be our Best Picture winner if Birdman and Boyhood weren’t around; it’s the only other film beside Birdman with the most nominations. People love it, and they love Wes Anderson. That paired with the quality of the film’s script is too much to pass up (that and it won with the Writer’s Guild, so it’s a safe bet). 

Best Animated Feature:

The strange exclusion of “The Lego Movie” makes this a cake walk for “How to Train Your Dragon 2”. 

Best Cinematography: 

Emmanuel Lubezki, last year’s winner for “Gravity”, is back for round two with Birdman. He’s won every major award thus far, so expect him to complete his victory lap with a second trophy here (deservedly). 

Best Costume Design: 

I think The Grand Budapest Hotel has this wrapped up. Not only are Milena Canoero’s costumes up and away the best of the bunch, but the film’s support in other branches and categories gives it an edge of the other films nominated here.

Best Documentary:

“CITIZENFOUR” is the J.K. Simmons of this category, so expect it to walk away victorious. 

Best Film Editing:

Sandra Adair’s work in Boyhood is sublime; can you imagine all of the work it took to go over 12 years worth of footage? And then to mold all of that footage into something as watchable and powerful as the final product? On that alone, I say she deserves the award. But sometimes, people think of best editing as the most editing, and if that’s the case, voters may go with “American Sniper”. But I really believe the monumental achievement that is Adair’s work, nabs her the trophy. 

Best Foreign Language Film: 

“Ida” has won the lion’s share of the trophies, so I’m going to bet on it for the win. “Leviathan” did win the Golden Globe, but I’m not sure if that’s enough to edge out Ida’s broader support and acclaim. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Another win for The Grand Budapest Hotel? Most likely, it’s got support from just about every branch, and the makeup is really something else here. But I could see them also going for “Guardians of the Galaxy” which would be a fun and inspired choice.

Best Original Score:

Alexandre Desplat is up for his scores in The Grand Budapest Hotel and “The Imitation Game”. He won the BAFTA for his work in Budapest, so stats say that’s where his win will be.

Best Original Song: 

The best of this slate of nominees will come out victorious; John Legend and Common’s “Glory” from the should be winning Best Picture film “Selma” has won every trophy its been up for, and has received some high profile performances, including a performance at the Grammy’s featuring Beyoncé. That, and the fact the Academy has received some major backlash for snubbing Selma in major categories make its narrative too strong to deny. 

Best Production Design:

Adam Stockhausen’s work in The Grand Budapest Hotel is amazing; it adds so much to the film’s narrative and overall quality that it seems impossible to imagine someone else winning here. 

Best Sound Editing & Mixing: 

“American Sniper” showed surprising strength when nominations were announced (6, more than expected). Its chances of winning in any of the major ones aren’t high, so my bet is that the film will be rewarded in both categories as a consolation prize. 

Best Visual Effects: 

A toss up. All of these films feel like potential winners; you could make a strong case for any one of them. But I think of the group “Interstellar” has the momentum with its recent BAFTA win. 

So if I’m right, the night’s biggest winner will be “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (5 wins) followed by “Boyhood” (3). If this proves to be true, “Birdman” will become the Best Picture winner with the least amount of Oscar wins with 2 wins. But, am I right? We’ll have to wait and find out until tonight at 7.