PGA Nominees: Selma Snubbed

When it comes to predicting the Oscar's Best Picture line up, the Producer's Guild is the most important precursor there is. They're usually pretty accurate, though there are often 1 or 2 that miss with Oscar (last year's "Blue Jasmine", 2012's "Skyfall", 2011's "Bridesmaids").

The biggest surprise looking at this year's list of nominees, is in the inclusion of Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper" and Dan Gilroy's "Nightcrawler"  and the exclusion of Ava DuVernay's "Selma". In the case of Nightcrawler, the film seems to be beloved by many; Jake Gyllenhaal's performance has received substantial acclaim and the film itself is popping up in many other Best Picture lists, but it's always been perceived as an Oscar play for Gyllenhaal and not a serious Best Picture play. American Sniper, on the other hand, has received some positive reviews (mainly for leading man Bradley Cooper) and won big with the NBR, but hasn't really popped up anywhere else. Eastwood always registers better with the Academy, however, so I guess it shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

But the fact it made it in over the universally acclaimed Selma, is shocking to me, and hopefully not telling of what's to come with Oscar. Both films have yet to expand in wide release, but have been doing very well at the box office. If anything, I think Selma will eventually edge out Nightcrawler come Oscar morning.

Despite raking in some major money over the holidays, neither Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" or Rob Marshall's "Into the Woods" could find any love here. In the case of Jolie, her film failed to live up to the monumental expectations dumped upon it as the frontrunner from the moment it was announced. Woods, on the other hand, received some great notices, but not as a Best Picture play. That shouldn't keep it from receiving attention for Meryl Streep and the craft/tech work.

The big winner though, is "The Grand Budapest Hotel", which has been receiving just about every nod it needed to overcome its early release date, including SAG, the Globes and now the PGA. I think it has what it takes to be one of the film's with the most nominations. And "Whiplash", once seen as a vehicle for eventual Best Supporting Actor winner J.K. Simmons, could squeak in on passion as "the little indie that could". It'll be interesting to see what eventually ends up on Oscar's shortlist.

See the full list of nominees below.

Where Are We in the Oscar Race?

Gravity, American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave are duking it out for the title of Best Picture of the Year. Who will the DGA pick? 

In the last month, we've heard from numerous critic's groups (including the BFCA), the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild. The Directors Guild will announce their winner on Sunday, and ultimately decide the new frontrunner.

But throughout the announcements and the seemingly endless awards shows, there are 3 films that have consistently come out on top each time. These are the 3 films that are currently duking it out for the win, the big prize.

Each film has its own band of supporters, its own narrative and reason for winning; it's going to be a photo finish.

American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years A Slave have built and maintained substantial heat in the past few months, but which film has enough gas in the tank to make it to the finish line?

A TIE at the Producer's Guild Awards

  (Blurry) picture of Brad Pitt accepting the PGA award for 12 Years A Slave, ONE (yes there's another winner) of the winners for the Best Film Award.

That's right you guys, we're still no closer to knowing who is going to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards yet, which is strange because at this point we usually have the winner locked up.

Before tonight, we had 3 front runners: American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years A Slave. The real fight seemed to be between 12 Years A Slave and American Hustle, both of whom have been winning Best Picture honors from the Globes and Broadcast Film Critics. But last night, Hustle edged out a win with SAG for Best Ensemble.

Poised to win again tonight, it tripped at the final lap, with not only 12 Years A Slave edging in a victory, but Gravity! The two tied for the Best Picture honor.

Now, unlike SAG Ensemble which has been known to miss with Oscar (The Help, Inglorious Basterds, etc), the PGA winner always goes on to win the Best Picture Academy Award.. so what does it mean that we 2 winners?

It will come down to the final Guild announcement: the DGA (Directors Guild). They announce their winner next week (Alfonso Cuaron of Gravity and Steve McQueen will both go toe to toe, with Hustle's O. Russell nominated as well).

Until then, a race that was becoming boring, managed to get exciting again. Hustle is out, and Gravity is in. Ballots go in on the 25th: This win could have an affect on the winner of the DGA.