Oscar Winners

I will be live-blogging throughout the ceremony. Refresh and sick with me through the night for updates and commentary on winners as they are announced.

Final Oscar Predictions: All the Categories

In just a few short hours, we’ll be able to finally put a cap on one of the most confusing Oscar races in recent history. After going months without a presumed frontrunner, “Boyhood” took the slot after winning the lion’s share of the critics’ prizes and critical acclaim. But despite its critical endorsement, something seemed off; no one seemed truly enthused about anointing Boyhood as the winner. For all of its revelatory scope (being filmed over a period of 12 years with the same actors), it’s a story we have heard dozens of times before. 

That feeling proved true, because as we moved into phase 2 (post-Oscar nominations/guild winners), it was Birdman that jumped in the driver’s seat, winning top honors from the Director’s, Actor’s and Producer’s Guilds. The only major guild award it has lost has been the British Academy Award (BAFTA) which went to Boyhood. Statistics will tell you that it’s between these two for the Best Picture win. 

But will it be a clean sweep? Will these two films dominate the ceremony? Hardly. It’s a competitive year, with a number of strong films threatening to spoil these two dog race. So, let’s a look through each category; Who will emerge the night’s biggest winner? 

Inside the Mind of an Academy Member: Resented 'Selma' filmmakers wearing "I can't breathe" T-Shirts

Every year Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter does anonymous interviews with Academy members about how they voted on each category. This is done largely in part to create hype around the upcoming ceremony and distract from the inevitable winners and create some excitement. The Oscars use a preferential ballot so everyone has their favorites; it's nice to see a shout out for someone who may not have won anything all season.

But usually what this does is point out how out of touch, and ignorant Academy voters are. Remember last year when several voters admitted to not even watching "12 Years A Slave"? Though the film ended up winning Best Picture, it points out how flawed the system is; Voters aren't watching the films, which points out what a farce the Oscars themselves are.

This year is no different, as an interview conducted with a female voter is choosing Patricia Arquette for "having no work done in 12 years" and believes "there is no artistry in 'Selma'".

"Birdman" Poised to Win Best Picture

In what must be the most unexpected surge towards Best Picture in recent history, director Alejandro González Iñárritu picked up the big win at last night's DGA awards, fresh off of his film's wins with the PGA and SAG a few weeks ago. Though it certainly seemed like this would b Richard Linklater's trophy to lose, "Birdman" has solidified itself as the film to beat for the top prize with the Oscars in a few weeks.

"American Sniper" and "Selma": The Problem No One is Talking About

It seems all anyone has been talking about for the past week is Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper". I have to admit, I did not take it seriously as a contender until the very last minute, when it nabbed critical DGA and PGA nominations over "Selma". The film's late release date, and the middling reception kept it from truly registering on my radar. But the Academy had different ideas about the film; they bestowed it with 6 nominations, including surprising ones for Bradley Cooper and the film's screenplay.

I've already talked about how sickening it was on the Academy's part to not only heap such praise onto the film, but at the expense of other (better) films such as Selma, or even "Gone Girl" and "Nightcrawler". Even more disappointing, and sickening, is that not one person of color was nominated in a major category, and to make it worse, none of the nominees outside of the actress categories are women. But all that aside, what's truly the most problematic thing about this whole thing, is American Sniper's existence in the first place.

Producer's Guild and Screen Actor's Guild: The Race is Wide Open

Move aside "Boyhood", we have a new frontrunner on our hands. 

If you thought that this year's Oscar race was getting a little boring (like me), then this weekend was exactly what you needed. After winning nearly every critic's prize and the Golden Globe, it seemed "Boyhood" was getting ready to steamroll its way to the Oscars. But with announcements from the Producer's Guild and the Screen Actor's Guild, its path just got a little more obscure.

Academy Award Nominations: The Whitest Oscars Since 1998

Sometimes, the critics do matter; Marion Cotillard was nominated in Best Actress in a Leading Role for "Two Days, One Night". 

"Wow" just about sums up my reaction to this year's Oscar nominations. As they always do, the Academy reminded us that they really do go their own way when it comes to what they see as 'the best'. 

Academy Award Nominations: What to Expect Tomorrow

Frontrunner "Boyhood" has a lot of momentum going into nomination day. 

We've heard from the Globes, and we're still awaiting on final decisions from SAG, the DGA, the PGA and the Broadcast Film Critics, but we finally have a consensus, at least.

*Yawn* DGA Nominations

Ava DuVernay was left off of the DGA shortlist this morning in favor of Clint Eastwood and Morten Teldum. 

In hindsight, awards don't mean anything. Year after year great films are produced and go unnoticed by voters in favor of mediocre awards-bait.

But what's so disappointing, is that a film that is not only great (the best of the year) on ever level, but socially relevant, is being shut out of awards contention. And as I sit here typing these words, maybe that's why "Selma" is being snubbed by all of the guilds (PGA, SAG and now the DGA).

PGA Nominees: Selma Snubbed

When it comes to predicting the Oscar's Best Picture line up, the Producer's Guild is the most important precursor there is. They're usually pretty accurate, though there are often 1 or 2 that miss with Oscar (last year's "Blue Jasmine", 2012's "Skyfall", 2011's "Bridesmaids").

The biggest surprise looking at this year's list of nominees, is in the inclusion of Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper" and Dan Gilroy's "Nightcrawler"  and the exclusion of Ava DuVernay's "Selma". In the case of Nightcrawler, the film seems to be beloved by many; Jake Gyllenhaal's performance has received substantial acclaim and the film itself is popping up in many other Best Picture lists, but it's always been perceived as an Oscar play for Gyllenhaal and not a serious Best Picture play. American Sniper, on the other hand, has received some positive reviews (mainly for leading man Bradley Cooper) and won big with the NBR, but hasn't really popped up anywhere else. Eastwood always registers better with the Academy, however, so I guess it shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

But the fact it made it in over the universally acclaimed Selma, is shocking to me, and hopefully not telling of what's to come with Oscar. Both films have yet to expand in wide release, but have been doing very well at the box office. If anything, I think Selma will eventually edge out Nightcrawler come Oscar morning.

Despite raking in some major money over the holidays, neither Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" or Rob Marshall's "Into the Woods" could find any love here. In the case of Jolie, her film failed to live up to the monumental expectations dumped upon it as the frontrunner from the moment it was announced. Woods, on the other hand, received some great notices, but not as a Best Picture play. That shouldn't keep it from receiving attention for Meryl Streep and the craft/tech work.

The big winner though, is "The Grand Budapest Hotel", which has been receiving just about every nod it needed to overcome its early release date, including SAG, the Globes and now the PGA. I think it has what it takes to be one of the film's with the most nominations. And "Whiplash", once seen as a vehicle for eventual Best Supporting Actor winner J.K. Simmons, could squeak in on passion as "the little indie that could". It'll be interesting to see what eventually ends up on Oscar's shortlist.

See the full list of nominees below.