Early Oscar Predictions

With this year's Cannes Film Festival finished, we have (un)officially began the 2014 Oscar season... which makes my brain hurt because it doesn't even seem like that long ago that I was watching Lupit Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence duke it out for Best Supporting Actress. But as it does every year, Oscar season seems to start just as it ends.

In the past, Cannes has been the starting point for many Oscar campaigns/stories, most notably 2011's "The Artist"; Michael Hazanivicious' silent throwback won the festival's Best Actor award for Jean Dujardin, and received rave reviews. It went on to become the winner for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Original Score and Costume Design at the Oscars, while being nominated for several other major awards. Other big films that got their start at the festival were Jane Campion's "The Piano", Roman Polanski's "The Pianist" Quentin Tarantino's "Pulp Fiction" and Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life". However, Cannes has also been known to be the false start of many Oscar hopefuls, just ask Best Actress winner Kirsten Dunst for Lars Von Trier's "Melancholia" or last year's Palm d'Or winner, "Blue Is the Warmest Color".

But whether or not all of the major players from this year's festival make it to the end, they're looking pretty great right now. You can read my official first Oscar predictions here but let's run through a few of the major players I'm predicting to see pop up on the awards gamut.

Foxcatcher (dir. Bennett Miller, starring Steve Carrell, Channing Tatum, Mark Ruffalo and Vanessa Redgrave): We've discussed the very buzzy Bennett Miller project before, most notably for its Oscar prospects surrounding Steve Carrell, an actor that has hinted at dramatic range, but has never had this size of a role before... initial predictions were right: Carrell is the frontrunner for Best Actor. Though the role is baity on paper, critics that saw the film at Cannes report that Carrell takes a very refreshing approach to the material, forgoing many of the routes many other actors would have taken to execute this performance. Channing Tatum also received rave reviews, with many saying he deserves to not only be nominated, but win an Oscar for his performance. Mark Ruffalo received great notices as well, while Miller won the festival's directing award. Between the buzz, Miller's Oscar record and the raves it's sure to receive, expect Foxcatcher to be a major player in almost every category this year.

Big Eyes (dir. Tim Burton, starring Amy Adams, Christoph Waltz): It's been awhile since Tim Burton has made a great film; you'd have to go back to 2007's "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" to find a film of his that received any enthusiastic reviews. However, the Weinstein's acquisition of this film raises a few eyebrows; could it actually be good? Based on a true story of Walter Keane (Christoph Waltz), a painter known for his portraits of big eyed kids, except it was his wife Margaret (Amy Adams) who painted the prints, with Walter adding his signature to the bottom after she was done. Eventually, the two clashed repeatedly over the paintings leading to a very dramatic divorce. Between Waltz's Oscar record (2 Oscar wins), Adams' own record (5 nominations), the based on a true story factor and Weinstein's involvement, you can be sure that the film will be present in the race. I'm predicting (at this point) that this is Burton's comeback film.

Birdman (dir. Alejandro González Iñárritu, starring Michael Keaton, Emma Stone, Edward Norton, Zach Galafanakis, Naomi Watts): Fox Searchlight is not to be underestimated in the Oscar race, and their acquisition of the meta-comedy "Birdman" sounds like it has the power to go the way of past Oscar ponies "Black Swan" and "The Tree of Life". Starring Michael Keaton (Tim Burton's "Batman") as a washed up actor best known for playing a superhero, who is in the midst of an inner battle in an attempt to revive his career and get his family back. The story has a "meta" element to it; the character walks a tight rope between fiction and fact of resembling Keaton himself, an edge that worked well for Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler". Early word is very positive, which will help it go the distance.

Mr. Turner (dir. Mike Leigh, starring Timothy Spall): Mike Leigh is beloved by the Academy, however, he is not beloved enough. His films never receive as many nominations as they should (in some cases, they receive none... remember "Happy Go Lucky"? Sally Hawkins shut out in favor of Kate Winslet... pft..), however, I think "Mr. Turner" can be his game changer. It's incredibly Academy friendly (biopic), and has received rave reviews from its bow at Cannes; Timothy Spall won the festival's Best Actor award. Expect him not only to receive his usual Screenplay nomination, but nominations for Spall, himself and the film as well.

Insterstellar (dir. Christopher Nolan, starring Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, Michael Caine, Ellen Burstyn): This is Christopher Nolan's first non Batman film since 2010. It's also a sci-fi film. His last sci-fi film "Inception" (which was his last non-Batman related project) won 4 Oscars in addition to being nominated for 4 more (including Best Picture and Screenplay). He's a favorite, except in the Best Director field where he has been ignored more than once. Interstellar is going to be huge (fan boys), maybe even bigger than Inception. It also helps that it's got some star power (McConaughey + Hathaway). Expect it to be a major player

Gone Girl (dir. David Fincher, starring Ben Affleck, Rosamund Pike): Fincher is one of the most acclaimed, and best directors working in Hollywood today. His last film "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" racked up 5 major Oscar nominations, while "The Social Network" holds the record for most critic's award wins for Best Picture (it also should have won Best Picture but we won't get into that). Now he's back, with a very buzzy project: the film adaptation to the frighteningly popular/acclaimed novel of the same name by Gillian Flynn (who also wrote the film's screenplay). Starring Oscar winner Ben Affleck, and Rosamund Pike, the film centers of the exploration of a dissolving marriage between a husband and wife in the wake of the wife's disappearance. Between Fincher's own Oscar record and the film's buzz, it's hard not to recognize "Gone Girl" will be a player, but just how much? Right now, Best Picture, Director, Editing and (maybe) Screenplay look great, but what about Pike's chances with Actress? The role is meaty enough. And will Affleck prove those naysayers wrong about his acting abilities?

Unbroken (dir. Angelina Jolie, starring Jack O' Connell, Garrett Hedlund): Though "In the Land of Blood and Honey" marked Angelina Jolie's directorial debut, it'll be "Unbroken" that tests her staying power as an actress turned director, and she couldn't have picked a better project. The story focuses on World War II hero Louis Zamperini (Jack O' Connell) and his survival after a plane crash, which led to his internment at a Japanese camp where he was tortured for 2 years. Jolie is (arguably) the biggest female movie star on the planet, and an Academy friendly face, while O' Connell has been on the verge of a breakout since he starred in the UK series Skins. It also doesn't hurt that the Academy loves films about WWII (the only thing they love more is films focused on the Holocaust). Will Jolie be able to pull it off? Roger Deakins serves as the film's cinematographer, and early footage is gorgeous to say the least. While some people might be skeptic to predict such a bait prospect, I have a feeling Jolie will stick the landing.

Into the Woods (dir. Rob Marshall, starring James Corden, Meryl Streep, Emily Blunt, Anna Kendrick, Chris Pine, Johnny Depp): Though Rob Marshall's last musical "Nine" wasn't the critical success everyone thought it would be, it still managed to nab 4 Oscar nominations. However, it's "Chicago" that we should be paying attention too; 13 nominations and 6 wins (including one for Best Picture). This is not someone we should discount. Secondly, that cast is starry enough to warrant attention in its own right, but the source material (the original stage play) is one of the most celebrated and acclaimed musicals released in recent history. The story follows a baker and his wife (Emily Blunt and James Corden) through an alternate world of the Grimm fairy tales after they've been cursed childless by a witch (Meryl Streep). They must embark on a journey to find certain items to break her curse, and begin the family they wish to start. Musicals aren't always a hit with the Academy, but when they are... they hit big, and I think this will not only hit big with the Academy, but audiences too.

Wild (dir. Jean-Marc Vallée, starring Reese Witherspoon): Dallas Buyers Club was the surprise hit of last year, landing 3 Oscar wins out of its nomination tally (including a nod for Best Picture). It's easy to say that Jean-Marc Vallée is a director to watch, and his helming of essentially a "one woman show" starring Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon piques interest. Based on the true story of Cheryl Strayed and her journey to self discovery, methinks this could not only be a hit, but Witherspoon's comeback; she's been lackluster since her Oscar win for "Walk the Line". It also doesn't hurt that the formula is almost the same from last year's Oscar juggernaut "Gravity", another one woman show (in which actress Sandra Bullock scored her second Oscar nomination).

Carol (dir. Todd Haynes, starring Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara, Sarah Paulson): Reigning Best Actress champ Cate Blanchett has another buzzy prestige project in the works, starring Oscar nominee Rooney Mara and should be Oscar nominee/current TV it girl Sarah Paulson, focusing on a lesbian relationship. The film is directed by acclaimed director Todd Haynes ("Far From Heaven"), who has a flair for period and women's stories. It's unknown if the film will be released this year or next, but it's certainly one to watch.

Maps to the Stars (dir. David Cronenberg, starring Julianne Moore, Mia Wasikowska, Robert Pattinson, John Cusack): Though critics at Cannes were muted on the film itself, Julianne Moore received the best notices of her career since she played Sarah Palin in "Game Change", taking home the coveted Best Actress award. Actresses who win at Cannes have a harder time breaking into the Oscar race it seems (You'll have to go back to 2006's "Volver" to find an actress who won at Cannes who went on to be nominated for an Oscar, and before that was in 1994 for Hellen Mirren's performance in "The Madness of King George"), which doesn't bode well for Moore. However, the reviews (and the critics, hopefully) might be able to push her into the final 5. The role is meaty enough; Moore plays an aging B-list actress struggling to maintain her relevancy. Though the meta-ness of the role may turn off voters, their adoration for Moore and her work may allow them to overlook it... not to mention, she still hasn't won an Oscar after all this time.

A Most Violent Year (dir. J.C. Chandor, starring Oscar Isaac, Jessica Chastain): J.C. Chandor has been on the verge of an Oscar breakout for awhile now, with both of his films having received critical acclaim ("Margin Call" got a screenplay nomination), but no big wins or notices. However, this could be the project that launches him into the spotlight. Starring "Inside Llewyn Davis'" Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain, the story focuses on a husband and wife and their involvement in a crime ring in the 80's in New York City during "one of the most violent years in New York's history".

The Grand Budapest Hotel (dir. Wes Anderson starring Ralph Fiennes, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Saorsie Ronan, Lea Seydoux, Tilda Swinton, Jude Law, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson): Hailed as Anderson's best work yet (and most successful at the box office I believe), this could be the film that gets him major recognition within the Academy, or will its early release date hinder its chances? You'd think the expanded Best Picture field would help, but it didn't help the equally masterful "Moonrise Kingdom" years before...

Get On Up (dir. Tate Taylor, starring Chadwick Boseman, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer): The Academy loves their biopics, and this could be one that finds itself on the same road that Tate Taylor's last Oscar player ("The Help) found itself on back in 2011: summer success= Oscar recognition. It even has Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer in it, and both ladies received nominations for their work, with Spencer winning. Though their roles are probably much smaller (they are not the film's focus), their names alone may bring attention to the flick... especially Davis who is known to receive acclaim for one scene alone; she nearly won an Oscar for her near-cameo in the film "Doubt", and rightfully so. If she brings that power to this film, she could find herself amongst the Supporting Actress nominees.

EARLY PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES: Here