A Few Words on our Best Actress Contenders

At this point in the game, we have a rousing 17 contenders (that stand a good chance) at being nominated for Best Actress in a Leading Role. As we all know, however, there can only be 5, and even though we're going purely on buzz at this point, it's pretty easy (based on Oscar's own predictability) to narrow it down to at least 2 or 3 nominees.

There really aren't a whole lot of contenders (particularly in this category) from films that have premiered thus far to compete against the women who are waiting in the wings. Sure, there's Shailene Woodley from "The Fault in Our Stars", and while critics are banging the drum for her now, will they still be banging when "Big Eyes" premieres? Or when Meryl Streep and the rest of the "Into the Woods" women show up onscreen? It's hard to say.

But as I said before, there's at least 2 or 3 that you can (probably) safely bet on seeing next year at the Oscar telecast.

The Sure Things:

1. Amy Adams, "Big Eyes" (pictured above)

• She has been previously nominated 5 times (4 times in Supporting Actress, and last year she landed her first in Leading Actress for "American Hustle") and still has yet to win. She is constantly pushed to the background by flashier, "louder" performances despite usually being better than said performances (Melissa Leo in "The Fighter", Jennifer Lawrence in "American Hustle", Meryl Streep in "Doubt", etc) but this time, she's the clear, stand-out lead, which means a lot. The film is also based on a true story, and (from those who have seen it so far) a return to form for director Tim Burton. It's also being distributed by Harvey Weinstein, and we know how hard he campaigns for his Lead Actresses. As of right now, she's the clear frontrunner. But we all know how easily that can change in the blink of an eye.

     2.  Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"

• A past winner in this category who has been in something of a career slump ever since her win, Witherspoon has 2 other (seemingly) high-profile films coming out this year which is going to mean she'll be present in the voters' minds. Wild, however, will definitely be her best bid at an Oscar nomination. Jean-Marc Vallée ("Dallas Buyers Club") came *this* close to sneaking in Best Director last year, meanwhile his film became the surprise winner of Oscar night (3 wins including a Best Picture and Editing nomination), so to say Wild isn't a contender is silly, especially since its being distributed by Fox Searchlight ("12 Years A Slave", "Black Swan", "Juno"). Based on the trailer alone, Witherspoon seems to be doing her best work in years, and we all know how much Oscar loves welcoming back a beloved actor/actress after they've been meandering in film purgatory for awhile. The film itself will depend on how well Witherspoon carries it herself, but we all know she has the charisma, and star power to do just that. 

     3. Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"

• "Gone Girl" stands to be one of the biggest hits of the year; based on the acclaimed best selling novel, and directed by David Fincher, starring Ben Affleck, there doesn't seem like much that's standing in the way of it being a success (those trailers so far have been amazing). But more interestingly, is lead actress Rosamund Pike, who has been on the verge of a breakthrough for awhile now. She plays the female lead, aka Amy Dunn, the wife of Affleck's character who disappears without a trace. Those who have read the book only have positive things to say about the character, and while Oscar sometimes has a hard time accepting/loving thriller films, I think the meatiness of the role combined with Pike's own charisma and the film's sure success will be enough to launch her into the category. 

    4. Shailene Woodley, "The Fault in Our Stars"

• Now, I know I was just discrediting her a few moments ago, but at this stage in the game, she does stand a very good chance at being nominated (we'll see how that turns out later as the months go on... but we're talking about now). Though Divergent was not as warmly received as dystopian YA novel- film adaptation "The Hunger Games", it was a huge hit at the box office ($200+ million worldwide). Woodley has also come close before to landing an Oscar nomination back with her supporting role in "The Descendants" (she was undeservedly left out), so there's some goodwill for her between bankability and "being due". Now with "The Fault in Our Stars", Woodley has not only attracted box office success (another $200+ million worldwide), but critical acclaim as well; several high profile news outlets are banging the drum for her Oscar campaign . Again, it's hard to say where she'll stand in the coming months, but her chances are looking pretty good as of right now. 

    5. Meryl Streep, "Into the Woods"

• It's Meryl. It's also Meryl singing. It's also Meryl singing in a sure to be iconic role, in a sure to be box office smash. Composer Stephen Sondheim even wrote an entirely new song specifically for her character, that will be included in the film. I can see her being left out, but with no real other challengers coming to steal her spot, she stands as good of a chance as ever of landing her (20th?) nomination. 

Outside Looking In:

• Julianne Moore, "Maps to the Stars"
• My heart tells me that she stands a better chance than Meryl at being nominated, but my gut and brain tell me I'm just being hopeful; after 4 nominations and endless acclaim, how is it she still hasn't won an Oscar?! Her performance in "Maps to the Stars" won her the Cannes Film Festival's Best Actress award, and while she completed the festival trifecta in doing so (she also has wins from Venice and Berlin), just as Kirsten Dunst how much a win at Cannes does for your Oscar hopes, no matter how deserving you may be. She can't be discredited, but unless the critics rally for her cause, she might just have to stick with the win at Cannes. 
• Marion Cotillard, "The Immigrant" 
• In a perfect world, Cotillard would have been nominated 2 years ago for her amazing performance in "Rust and Bone" (she was even great in "Nine"), but Oscar has ignored her ever since she won for "La Vie En Rose". With "The Immigrant", she delivers a performance than challenges the one she won the Oscar for (and that's saying something), but one that will undoubtedly be forgotten due to a "blink and you'll miss it" release by Weinstein (due to a muted reception at last year's Cannes Film Festival). Maybe she can get some critics awards love (maybe, hopefully), but that probably won't happen. She'll probably have to wait for "Macbeth" to land her second nomination, which no one seems to know if that's being released this year or next. Harvey may wait till next year, but if he doesn't, she's going to be a force to be reckoned with. 
• Jessica Chastain, "The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby"
• Chastain is one of the most critically acclaimed actresses working right now; with 2 Oscar nominations already under her belt, and a lot of high profile films being released this year (including Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar"). Her role in "Eleanor Rigby" has won her much praise, with some calling it her best work yet. The marketing campaign, however, could leave her on the outside looking in, however; there are 3 versions of the film that will be released as the year goes on. One that combines Chastain's character and co-star James McAvoy's character's POV's, and then 2 separate films that detail each character's side of the story. Though it's audacious, it's risky, which is why I'm holding off on calling her a sure thing, at least right now. Chastain still has her supporting role in director J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year", however, which could just be her awards bid this year. 

The Rest of the pack:

• Carey Mulligan, Suffragette 
• Buzzy role, but no distributor or release date yet.
• Marion Cotillard, "Macbeth
• No word on if it's being released this year or next.
• Nicole Kidman, "Queen of the Desert"
• Biopic, pre-release raves, however there's the faint memory of "Grace of Monaco" and the film has no release date or distributor. 
• Maggie Smith, "My Old Lady"
• Everyone loves her on "Downtown Abbey", and while this looks like more of the same comedic gold, the film looks small and rather light. She couldn't get in for Marigold Hotel so I doubt she'll gain any traction with this. 
• Michelle Williams, "Suite Francaise"
• Backed by Weinstein, but still no release date. 
• Hillary Swank, "The Homesman"
• The film received so so reviews at Cannes, and many are still feeling the burn of her divisive second Oscar win. Plus the film got picked up by a rather small distributor, and has no release date. 
• Emma Stone, "Magic in the Moonlight"
• Sometimes Woody Allen works magic with his actresses, and she was amazing in "Easy A", so who knows what could happen? Her supporting work in "Birdman", however, is a safer bet it seems.