A few days ago, I ran through our long list of Best Actress contenders (a list that doesn't even really encompass all of the hopefuls this season has to offer, just those with the best chances at even being recognized). Though Best Actor is even more stacked than last year's massive pool, the Supporting categories are as weak as ever (at least they are right now), especially Supporting Actor.
"Birdman" has 3 contenders hoping for a nomination; leading man Michael Keaton, best known for his role in Tim Burton's "Batman" films, along with co-stars Ed Norton (a previous 2 time nominee) and Emma Stone (it would be her first Oscar nomination. She also will be seen in Woody Allen's "Magic in the Moonlight"), while the men of "Foxcatcher" all seem like safe bets in their respective categories; at this point, Leading Actor is between Steve Carrell and Channing Tatum, with Carrell having a slight edge (he has goodwill from being left out for "Little Miss Sunshine" a few years ago).
But enough yammering on, let's go through the rest of the acting categories. Take a look at my FULL list of nominations here
Best Actor in a Leading Role-
The Sure Things:
- Steve Carrell, "Foxcatcher"
- Carrell is one of everyone's "funny men", having won lots of Emmy nominations and goodwill for his role on "The Office". However, he shocked everyone when he aced a tricky dramatic role in "Little Miss Sunshine", and was just left off the Supporting Actor shortlist that year. Now he's back in Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher" as the murderous, manipulative wrestling coach John DuPont. He won raves at the Cannes Film Festival, and though a Best Actor award eluded him, he's still the one to beat this year. Between a slight physical transformation, the buzziness of the role AND the film (plus the fact he is playing against the type) there's no way he'll be left out this time.
- Carrell's only serious competition at this point, is in the form of his co-star. An actor who has been transforming his career as of late, Tatum has proved himself to be a formidable comedic actor ("21 & 22 Jump Street") and dramatic actor ("Magic Mike). He is said to deliver his best performance ever in "Foxcatcher", and with the marketing campaign focusing so heavily on Tatum, his chances at landing his first ever nomination are soaring. Though I still go with Carrell at this point for the win, don't count out Tatum just yet.
- "Birdman" is opening this year's Venice Film Festival, which means we'll know soon enough whether it's as good as everyone has been saying. Keaton looks like he's found the perfect role; a man known best for playing a superhero, but is now washed up and trying to find his way back to the big screen. The meta element of the role may be too hard to resist for voting actors. And the fact that it looks to be one of the best films of the year doesn't hurt Keaton's chances either.
- The Academy loves biopics. The Academy also loves when character actors ace in a leading role. The Academy also enjoys Mike Leigh (sometimes). All of these things spell out good chances for Timothy Spall, who won Best Actor at Cannes Film Festival over the buzzier likes of Channing Tatum and Steve Carrell. Though he may be the "underdog", some consistent critics recognition should help keep him afloat the rest of the season at the expense of the other hopefuls nipping at his feet.
- O'Connell has been a critically acclaimed young actor ever since his stint on the popular UK show "Skins". He won a string of Sundance acclaim earlier this year for his work in the film "Starred Up", and he's on the verge of an international breakthrough. The role of a WWII hero AND Olympic Gold Medalist, in a movie directed by Angelina Jolie is the right film to be in at this point in O'Connell's career. Unbroken is going to be HUGE, and I don't doubt for a second people will attribute a lot of it to O'Connell's performance. It's also a great way to pay tribute to Louis Zamperini (whom O'Connell plays in the film), who just recently passed away. Though this nomination would make O'Connell the second youngest nominee of the modern era (after John Travolta in "Saturday Night Fever"), I think this will be the film to make that happen.
- Ralph Fiennes, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
- Lots of love for this performance/film, previous nominee (S.Actor), but will he be remembered later in the year?
- David Oyelowo, "Selma"
- Biopic/playing real person (MLK Jr.), rising actor, but there are many other young competitors with biopics this year... The film is low-profile as of late so for him to get in he'll need critical/industry support.
- Eddie Redmayne, "Theory of Everything"
- He was close for "Les Miserables", rising actor, playing a real person/biopic (Stephen Hawking), but as I said there are many other young actors with biopics coming out this year. The story is adapted from Mrs. Hawking's biography so it may be a meatier opportunity for the actress opposite him?
- Chadwick Boseman, "Get on Up"
- Another young actor with a biopic, this time it's James Brown. A summer release date isn't always a death sentence ("The Help"), but he'll need some rave reviews to keep him alive for the end of the year.
- Oscar Isaac, "A Most Violent Year"
- J.C. Chandor's follow up to last year's "All is Lost" looks like a buzzy opportunity for actress Jessica Chastain, but will it be as good for Isaac? He missed out for "Llewyn Davis", but his star is rising fast (he just signed onto Star Wars). If he was to land a nomination, it would be now.
- Michael Fassbender, "Macbeth"
- No word on if this will be released this year or next.
- Ben Affleck, "Gone Girl"
- "Gone Girl" will be big, make no mistake. But Affleck's acting has never been warmly received... though a lot feel he was still "snubbed" for director the year "Argo" won Best Picture. It seems like more of a show for Rosamund Pike.
The Sure Things-
- Jessica Chastain, "A Most Violent Year"
- Chastain has 2 other films coming out this year ("Eleanor Rigby" and "Interstellar") on top of J.C. Chandor's follow up to "All Is Lost", which will help keep her name in voters' minds. As the wife of Oscar Isaac's character, she may benefit from a weak Supporting Actress field this year and land her 3rd overall nomination (maybe even win, who knows). Not much is known about the film but we all know how gifted of an actress she is.
- Though undoubtedly a lead role, Into the Woods is an ensemble film, and Disney will no doubt exploit that fact to campaign her in a weaker, less competitive field. Blunt has come close to her first nomination twice now ("The Devil Wears Prada" and "The Young Victoria"), and with critical acclaim from this year's "Edge of Tommorow" and the inevitable smash success of Into the Woods, it would be a shock to see her miss out here.
- Kendrick is a former nominee in this category, and a very popular actress with several financially successful films to her name. Supporting Actress is notorious for "double dipping" with actresses from the same film, which helps Kendrick and Blunt's chances. She's playing Cinderella, a role which won Laura Benanti a Tony nomination in the Broadway show. Between her like ability, her visibility AND the inevitability of Kendrick's success with the role and the film's success, it feels like with enough momentum, Kendrick could even win the damn thing.
- Felicity Jones is an actress who has been on the verge of a breakthrough for awhile now. She won a ton of acclaim for "Like Crazy", but seemed to disappear afterwards. Now she's back with a biopic adapted from Jane Hawking's biography, a meaty opportunity if there ever was one. She could follow in Jennifer Connelly's footsteps as "the wife who went supporting" (despite the magnitude of the role).
- Now that she's done with those dreadful Spiderman films, Stone can return on her promise shown in the masterful "Easy A", and she's wasted no time; she has Woody Allen's "Magic in the Moonlight" and "Birdman" this year, which could be her ticket to her first Oscar nomination. She plays Michael Keaton's daughter recently released from rehab, hired to be his personal assistant. We know what she can do when handed the right material, and she's just so damn likable. She stands the least chance at being nominated right now, but once the film premieres, I think that'll change.
- Viola Davis, "Get on Up"
- We know what Viola can do with just one scene, but will this be as good of an opportunity as "Doubt" was? She'll need raves.
- Laura Dern, "Wild"
- "Wild" might just be the Reese Witherspoon show, so this role will need to be special for Dern to make it in. She's always great though, so if she misses out, it won't be a question of her talent.
- Naomi Watts, "St. Vincent"
- The role is attention grabbing (Russian Hooker with pink hair) and Watts is a good actress, but she's often forgotten about in terms of awards love).
The Sure Things:
- Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
- He has exposure (Emmy nomination for "The Normal Heart", critical acclaim for "Begin Again") and Foxcatcher is going to be a hit. Though Carrell and Tatum have attracted most of the acclaim for the film, there were enough raves for Ruffalo for him to be in this race, plus he's previously nominated in this category (The Kids Are All Right).
- A 2 time Oscar winner in a biopic backed by Harvey Weinstein. Add pre-release buzz and a weak field and you've got an Oscar success story.
- He's a 2 time nominee, so that helps. He also hasn't been nominated in some time, so that also helps. As Michael Keaton's nemesis in the film, there's no doubt he's in the conversation (this category usually goes for villains/arch nemesis's). It's really going to come down to if this category gets any stronger; the fact it's weak helps his case a lot.
- The recipient of some very great reviews out of Sundance, and the fact he was worthy for "Juno", means he could land his first ever nomination. He's worked very steadily for many years, and is respected by many which goes a long way. This is also a very weak field, which helps.
- SOMEONE from PT Anderson's starry "Inherent Vice" has to get nominated... right? Brooks was flat out snubbed the year of "Drive", so Oscar does owe him.. and he's back with another villainous role in a very weak field. This could be the atonement nomination.
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