Into the Woods' Dilemma: The Case of the 3 Women

Disney's "Into the Woods" is arguably the biggest question mark in the Oscar race right now, next to J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year". The Rob Marshall directed musical has the prestige to at least be on the Oscar radar (Marshall directed "Chicago", another musical which won 8 Oscars including Best Picture), several Oscar nominated actors in its very starry cast (Meryl Streep, Anna Kendricks and Johnny Depp) and is based on an acclaimed stage play by Stephen Soundheim, who penned the likes of "Sweeney Todd" (the film adaptation was nominated for 3 Oscars, including Best Actor for Depp). But the buzz on the film has been questionable at best; there were those early reports that the source material was facing "conservative changes", later reported to be false by Soundheim himself. Then there was the report that Streep's new song made special for her and the film itself, was cut, following rumors of a month of reshoots.

All this drama has me wondering about A.) The potential quality of the film and B.) The film's role in the Oscar race.

Now, based solely on buzz and the fact that many of the Oscar hopefuls haven't premiered yet, I have been predicting Into the Woods in several categories. Contenders are already starting to fall in line, however, and it's easy to see a lot of the films premiering at the end of the year (Woods, Unbroken, A Most Violent Year, etc.) not being able to perform as well, awards wise. Picture is up in the air, because the category could be anywhere from 5-10 nominees (the past few years it has been 9). If Woods does "Les Mis" level business, it can probably be counted on to be a nominee. That being said, Woods is more of a satire, while Les Mis is definitively a drama featuring very showy, dramatic work (Anne Hathaway as Fantine, for example).

All that said, the 3 women of Woods will definitely be the ones, if any, who will receive awards attention outside of some production/tech categories, and of the 3, we all know who stands the best at being nominated.

It's a no brainer that Meryl Streep, no matter what she does, is going to factor into awards talk. Her chances earlier seemed a bit weak, since most were predicting that her role as The Witch (typically a marquee role) would be campaigned in the Leading Actress category. Just today, however, it was announced she would be campaigned in Supporting Actress, while Emily Blunt will be campaigned in Leading Actress. That boosts her chances immensely, because that category is so weak this year, and her name alone gives her a lot of pull. This is pretty confusing, however, given that Streep is not only the top billed actress, but the face of the advertising.

That doesn't do Emily Blunt a lot of favors, however. Though her role as The Baker's Wife is undeniably the female lead, she would have to go against Rosamund Pike, Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Jones for a slot, all of which are starring in more "Oscar friendly" films with more positive buzz or critical raves than Blunt has/will probably receive. It also doesn't help, that she's never been nominated before, and going against 2 "newcomers" (Jones & Pike) who are experiencing career breakthroughs at the moment. Blunt would have to be mind blowingly good with a lot of critical backing to land a nomination. Had she been (falsely) campaigned in Supporting, she may have had a chance.

Anna Kendrick on the other hand, falls somewhere in the middle of Streep and Blunt. She is by no means a slam dunk like Streep, but her chances of being nominated are much better than Blunt's. For one thing, she is previously nominated in Supporting for "Up in the Air" back in 2009, and had that not been the year of Monique, she probably would have won. She's playing the role of Cinderella, a supporting role, so she would join Streep in the Supporting category. Supporting Actress is notorious for "double dipping", aka, nominating 2 actresses from the same movie, so it's pretty likely that both Streep and Kendrick could be nominated. Also, she's got some great exposure with "The Last 5 Years" doing so well at Toronto, AND "Pitch Perfect 2" coming up. That and the fact she will most definitely nail the singing (she was nominated for a Tony at age 12) helps a lot.

Ultimately, Streep may be the film's lone acting contender, which is most likely what will happen. I'm holding out hope for Kendrick based on personal bias and the fact that Cinderella's arc is my personal favorite from the play. Blunt, however, will most likely finish the season as an "also-ran", which is sad since she's come so close to Oscar before, and it seemed like this might finally be her year.

Here's to hoping we get a new a trailer soon, though.