The Oscar race is a fickle thing; the slightest bit of negative buzz can all but deter a film on the winning track to implosion. Your buzz can never peak too early, and your release date can't be too far away from the end of the year. Sure, you can skip the festivals (New York, Cannes, Venice, Telluride) but you better have a hell of a box office success story, or Meryl Streep playing a Holocaust victim in a film backed by Harvey Weinstein if you want to secure some major nominations.
At this point last year, we had "Gravity" breaking box office records, and "12 Years A Slave" had won the top prize at the Toronto Film Festival; these were undisputed frontrunners. It was going to come down to these 2 (and it did, with some heat from "American Hustle"). I can honestly say that as of right now, I have no idea what film will win Best Picture; we don't really have a front runner.
Now, consensus would say "The Imitation Game" is the best choice, and at face value I wouldn't disagree. It has Weinstein behind it, the People's Choice from Toronto, and it's a period film about WWII. It's also about overcoming adversity, an angle that worked for another Weinstein backed film, "The King's Speech". And while reviews for the film starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley have been positive, nothing (not even the buzz) suggests that this is our winner. Reviews pretty much say that although the film works, it doesn't have much to say; Variety magazine had good things to say about the film, but called it "Conventional" and "an Oscar-baiting biopic". However, even the negative reviews cite Cumberbatch as the highlight, and it feels like that's the film's strongest area for a win in a major category. Though that could change when the film is officially released, if it enjoys the kind of box office success The King's Speech did.
So, if not The Imitation Game, then who would be next? "Gone Girl" is currently enjoying its second week atop the box office ($78 mill domestic, $140 mill worldwide), with very healthy reviews (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 79 on Metacritic). It's also spawning numerous conversations/think pieces from various publications, which will help fuel its word of mouth and add to its box office success. However, according to a report by the LA Times, Gone Girl was "greeted with a shrug by Oscar voters". According to the report by Glenn Whip, a total of 1,012 voters attended a screening last week, and were dissatisfied with the adaptation. One voter was quoted as saying:
"I didn't want to know anything about the movie before I saw it, but I kept hearing people talk about Ben Affleck's penis... and now I know why. It's a more fully realized character than the character [Rosamund] Pike plays... You don't hear enough of her voice, and it throws the whole thing off."
Though that was one isolated screening (there are sure to be more as the year wears on), that has been a common complaint amongst viewers; many (myself included) found that Pike's character got the shaft in the novel to screen adaptation. Not only could this affect the film's chances of Best Picture recognition, but Pike's status as one of the 5 Best Actress nominees. If the film continues its box office success with some recognition from the later critics groups, however, these complaints may not matter.
"Boyhood", the film by director/writer Richard Linklater, is the only film in the mix that has been out for several months now. Having taken 12 years to film and put together, the film has gone on to receive the strongest reviews of the year, and many other years as well (100 on Metacritic, 99% on Rotten Tomatoes). Distributor IFC has not been successful in past years with films in the Oscar race; they're on the smaller side when it comes to producing films. But this could be their ticket in. Linklater is a respected individual in the writing and directing branches, not to mention, IFC has been quoted as saying they are planning a campaign around the film. Boyhood also raked in $23 million against a budget of $4 million, which is not anything that's crazy but it's respectable, and doesn't hurt its chances.
So that leaves "Birdman", "The Theory of Everything" and "Foxcatcher" as films that have premiered, with the best chances at being recognized. Response to Foxcatcher has been positive, but oddly cool; director Bennett Miller is no stranger to the Oscars, which is probably why everyone seems so muted on the subject; they expect it to be a default nominee. That being said, Channing Tatum's performance has inspired more acclaim than the film itself; Vanity Fair's Richard Larson deemed Tatum "The talk of the Cannes Film Festival" back when it premiered, but Best Actor is so crowded this year that he may be overlooked.
Speaking of actors, Michael Keaton is winning the reviews of a lifetime with his work in "Birdman". Now that the film has played in the states (it recently closed the New York Film Festival), it has critics raving up and down about it. If anything, it seems to be the "Black Swan" of its year: a deep, psychological film with one bravura performance with some awe-inspiring directing, writing and cinematography. Both Birdman and Black Swan are/were being angled as different, strange art house films, which both help and hurt. Yes, this inspires interest in the film itself for being different than everything else on the market. But at the same time, conservative Academy members could be put off by the "unfamiliar". This actually hurt Black Swan during its campaign; the film was being projected as one of the films to be nominated in nearly every category, but only raked in 5 nominations, as opposed to other films that had 10.
So where does "The Theory of Everything" fit in? Well it's another British biopic, however, it tells the story of Steven Hawking. And while The Imitation Game has faced some criticisms of being too "Oscar baity", this film has received nothing but praise from almost everyone that's scene it. The Telegraph calls it "Affecting", while The Guardian declared that the film "Packed a punch". Of course there were raves for lead actors Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne's performances as Jane and Steven Hawking, but the key takeaway is that critics are feeling for the film. It's great to have solid reviews that The Imitation Game has, but there is a lack of enthusiasm and mention of emotion when looking at the reactions to that film. The Academy is notorious for being won over by films that make you feel (The Kings Speech over "The Social Network", "Slumdog Millionaire" winning everything, "Terms of Endearment", etc), and that's what I think could be what pushes Theory of Everything to the front of the pack, in the same way it pushed "A Beautiful Mind", another biopic about a brilliant theorist.
Do I think there's still room for things to move around? Absolutely. Several films ("Unbroken", "Into the Woods", "A Most Violent Year" to name a few) don't premiere till Christmas Day or later; it's still too early to say. However, as of right now, these 6 films are the best bets when it comes to Best Picture. Of these 6, Theory of Everything is the one with the best chances at winning; it has the reviews, it appeals to actors (the largest voting branch in the Academy) and it has the emotional aspect. I also would not be shocked if it became a modest success at the box office. But will it win? Ask me that again after Christmas.
Updated Oscar Predictions.
Originally Published by the Whit
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