"American Hustle" racked up 10 nominations last year, and you can attribute that to buzz 100%. By the time nomination ballots were filled out, the film had been anointed as the frontrunner by the New York Film Critics Circle (the first major group to hand out awards). The NYFCC blatantly changed their awards date to be the first, before the Los Angeles critics and before the National Board of Review, but this was no accident. It's universally accepted that the group wanted to establish their impact as an organization, and they did by shoving American Hustle firmly into the race. They gave the film Best Picture, Screenplay and Supporting Actress honors, with director David O. Russell coming in 2nd to Steve McQueen, and Amy Adams placing 2nd to Cate Blanchett. The film had a strong early reception from industry insiders, all of which had taken place before anyone of importance had actually seen the film.. and thus it walked away with 10 Oscar nominations. But when voters and audiences sat down to watch the film, the reception had become more divisive. In the end, it walked away with 0 Oscars of those 10 nominations. This is an example of how buzz and hype can build your film up, but also how it can tear you down.
Hype now dominates the Oscar race. What films have the most hype? What are people on the internet talking about? Which films are being talked about the most? Following a film's buzz is arguably the best way to guess where its Oscar standing is. It's been about a month since we last sat down and looked at the Oscar race. Several high profile contenders have been released since, but have they stuck their landing? Let's see where they stand.
- Birdman:
- Besides Richard Linklater's "Boyhood", I think this will be the film that takes home the lion's share of the critic's awards. It holds an 89 on Meteoritic, the highest of the already released Oscar movies, besides Boyhood (which holds a perfect score of 100). Enthusiasm for the performances (Michael Keaton, Edward Norton and Emma Stone) should make it a popular pick for the actors who represent the majority of the Oscar's voting body; if it manages an Ensemble nomination from the Screen Actors Guild, it's a viable threat. The film could receive strong attention in the below the line categories as well (cinematography, score, editing, etc) which only add to its potential strength. If the Best Picture category was limited to 5 slots as it used to be, this would definitely be one of the 5.
- Selma
- I've purposefully avoided talking about this film, because I had no idea if it was truly going to happen this year or not. However, the film premiered to acclaim from its AFI screening a few days ago (it already has a 98 on Metecritic from early reviews). With biopics like "Theory of Everything" and "The Imitation Game", this one, based on Martin Luther King Jr., was in danger of being just another conventional Oscar bait project. However, up and coming director Ava DuVernay (who helmed "Middle of Nowhere") has taken a different route, showing us the conflicted, complex Dr. King we have never seen before onscreen. Word is that it's a gorgeously rendered film, led by a flat out amazing performance by David Oyelowo who I think could break into Best Actor in a big way. Though the film only has a limited release date on Christmas Day and won't be premiering wide until January 9th, I think that's enough time for the film to break out. Let's be honest, this Oscar season was in danger of being the whitest Oscars ever, so let's hope Selma breaks out in a big way and shakes things up.
- The women of Into the Woods:
- Though still unseen, Disney has been really amping up the publicity machine as of late. Between the Tv spots, amazing full trailer (featuring the singing!) and the behind the scenes feature, it's clear that this is going to be good. The production design looks gorgeous, as do the many costumes, but what stands out the most are the women. Anyone who is a fan of the original musical knows that the show features brilliant characterizations, especially for the lead female roles. It's a no brainer that Streep is in. Her character, The Witch, is a marquee role in its own right, but Disney has smartly placed the acting legend at the forefront of their marketing campaign, and her rendition of the iconic "Stay With Me" (no, not that Sam Smith song) is sure to be "I Dreamed A Dream" moment of the year. But Anna Kendrick and Emily Blunt have rich roles too. As Cinderella, Kendrick will undoubtedly nail the singing and humor the role requires. Cinderella is also the most morally likable character of the piece, and goes through a huge character arc that will surely warrant attention, and be refreshing with such a lack of complex female roles. While Blunt (who has had several brushes with Oscar in the past) as The Baker's Wife should also be able to capitalize on her character, which was the only one to win a Tony during the show's original run on Broadway. Her chances, however, will truly depend on her singing abilities, which have been curiously absent from any previews/leaked material. Still, the richness of the character is enough to warrant consideration, and we know she's capable of giving a great performance.
- Jake Gyllenhaal:
- Though one of the most talked about actors of his generation, Jake's performances have never truly capitalized on his early promise. Sure, he nabbed a nomination for "Brokeback Mountain", but its been awhile since he has truly blown us away. Last year in "Prisoners", Gyllenhaal finally gave a performance that seemed lived-in, real and mature. His work in the exceptional "Nightcrawler", is not only his best work to date, but among the top performances of the year. In typical method actor form, Gyllenhaal shed some weight and lived on the night shift to get into his character's "shifty reporter" mentality. Never for a second, however, does Jake's work seem calculated, as many method performances do. On the contrary, Gyllenhaal sheds his boyish face and frame we're all accustomed to, to show us what's lying beneath. It's less of a showy performance than you'd think, and it's got people (rightfully) talking. Best Actor is a bloodbath this year, but if there's any hope in the world, Jake will slide in alongside of Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Let's hope the critics take notice.
- Julianne Moore:
- Though "Still Alice" has yet to be seen by anyone not on the festival circuit, Moore has already landed a Gotham Award nomination, is the recipient of the Palm Springs International Film Festival's award for Best Actress, and received a standing ovation at the Hollywood Film Awards the other night. Prepare for Moore to dominate this year's Best Actress category after being unrewarded so so long.
- Interstellar:
- Though I was pretty crazy for the film, it's evident that many others aren't; the film's reception has been undoubtedly divisive. And of course, there's those reports about Jessica Chastain being unable to promote her other film ("A Most Violent Year") because of her "Interstellar" contract, which isn't the kind of publicity you want for your film. The film has also "underperformed" in terms of box office. The negative press isn't good for word of mouth, nor eventual Oscar nominations. It's clear also, that this won't be a film popular with critics, or actors, which means it'll need below the line support to have a good standing in the Oscar race. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out. But don't expect Christopher Nolan to land that elusive first Oscar nomination, whatever the film's fate ends up being.
- Team Foxcatcher:
- A few months ago, Foxcatcher seemed to have it all. Helmed by a critically acclaimed Oscar darling (Bennett Miller), based on a true story, a dark performance given by a comedic actor (Steve Carrell), and a reported "tour de force" given by a blossoming actor (Channing Tatum); the Oscar prospects seemed promising. Now? Buzz on the film has flatlined, just as it's being pushed into theaters. No one is talking about it. Not to mention the reviews have been chilly, which isn't good for its longevity, and though I think there's enough gas in the tank for Carrell to land his first career nomination, maybe this isn't the Oscar heavyweight I thought it was..
- Big Eyes:
- This project was always going to be hit or miss; Tim Burton, even at his peak, has never been popular with the Academy, and it's been awhile since he's made a great film. Backed by Weinstein, featuring Amy Adams, this film was poised to be his comeback. However, the film's reception at the AFI festival confirmed what that wildly uneven first trailer told us, that it's all over the place. Ranging from enthusiasm for Adams' work, to disappointment/disinterest, it's safe to say that this film needs a messiah to save its Oscar prospects. Even in an incredibly weak year for Best Actress, Adams may be in need of some help.
- The Imitation Game:
- Its true power will be tested when it premieres on the 28th, but I doubt anything can truly break this contender from nabbing some key nominations. It plays right into the Academy's sweet spot for WWII flicks, it's a biopic AND backed by Harvey. The People's Choice laurel from the Toronto Film Festival doesn't hurt either, which is usually indicative of a film winning or at least being nominated for Best Picture. However, though the film has received some pretty solid notices, there's no real enthusiasm for it, which could keep it from winning in the end. It won't be a critics award magnet, but some strong guild support could push it to a win, like "The King's Speech" in 2010.
- The Theory of Everything:
- I still maintain that of the film's expected to be nominated for Best Picture, this is the one that could win Best Picture. That emotional ploy is something the Academy is unable to ignore in many heated Best Picture battles. Right now, there's popular theory that Eddie Redmayne's transformative performance could be our Best Actor winner. It doesn't hurt that Stephen Hawking acknowledged how spot on his work was... not a bad endorsement to have. But in a year with a lot of different films entering the fray, is this really the film we're going to give the highest honor to?
- Boyhood:
- The most critically acclaimed film of the year has been poised to be longtime director/writer Richard Linklater's big breakout with the Academy. Patricia Arquette remains the undisputed frontrunner in Best Supporting Actress (a pretty thin category), and I can definitely see at the very least, Linklater winning Best Director if the film doesn't win Best Picture. Can distributor IFC bring this around for a victory lap though? It feels like forever since the film premiered, and with so many December releases, voters will need to be reminded.
- Gone Girl:
- People are still seeing and talking about Gone Girl; the Gillian Flynn/David Fincher collaboration has managed to tap into the zeitgeist, and become one of the biggest hits, and talked about films of the year (it's surpassed "Benjamin Button" as Fincher's biggest hit), something that doesn't hurt in nabbing Oscar nominations. Critics loved the film, but that Academy screening early last month has me worried... and the film's sure thing, Rosamund Pike, doesn't seem like such a sure thing anymore. In a category filled with sure things, she seems like the most vulnerable contender; the character is divisive.
- A Most Violent Year:
- Though the film premiered some very positive reviews at the AFI festival the other night, they weren't the type of reviews needed for such a small film to break into the Oscar race. Acclaim for both Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain was a consistent notice in reviews, but it's unknown whether A24 (a very small distributor) can push them into the race, despite a Gotham award nomination for Isaac. The December 31st release date is also problematic; will voters be able to see it in time before filling out their ballots? Will they care to? The critics will have to push this film hard into the race.
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