Let's see who is up and who is down after the busy week.
Who is Up? (+)
- Jennifer Aniston:
- Here's something I never thought I would hear myself saying: Academy Award Nominee Jennifer Aniston. But you better believe that after this week, Aniston is poised to receive her first nomination. "Cake", a film about a woman addicted to pain killers and alcohol who is grappling with the death of a woman in her support group, played reportedly well at this year's Toronto Film Festival, where Aniston reportedly received a standing ovation. Though consensus on the film is mixed, everyone is in agreement that Aniston kills it, and a few journalists started wondering if maybe this could be the film that "The Good Girl" tried to be (the film that got us taking her seriously as an actress). Though that was all just talk for awhile; many thought the film was too small to break into the starry Best Actress race. However, Aniston has been fiercely working the circuit for months now, giving interview upon interview detailing her committed performance. It payed off, because she was recognized by the Broadcast Film Critics, SAG and the Globes this week. That fifth slot seemed pretty confusing, but with Aniston winning these key nominations, it seems like she's poised to steal it away.
- Robert Duvall:
- "The Judge" was pretty tepidly received by critics and audiences alike, with little to no enthusiasm for Duvall's performance. But that didn't stop both SAG, the Broadcast Film Critics and the Globes from nominating him anyway. I expect he got in on name recognition and benefitted from that weak Supporting Actor category, only time will tell if he can coast his way to the Oscars. I mean, they did nominate Alan Arkin for "Argo", so it's entirely possible. Let's see if he can hold on to this slot, however, once "Selma" premieres to a wider audience.
- "Boyhood" & Co.:
- Richard Linklater's "little engine that could" doesn't seem so little anymore; it's won just about every critics award there is (the trifecta: New York, LA and Boston), not to mention Linklater and actress Patricia Arquette have been gobbling up their fair share of awards. Even Ethan Hawke, a Supporting Actor dark horse, has picked up SAG and Globe nominations, with the film's ensemble recognized with a SAG ensemble award nomination. If there is a frontrunner, logic points to "Boyhood". It'll be interesting to see how it performs come the guild awards; as we learned with "The Social Network", the critics do not vote for the Oscars.
- "The Theory of Everything":
- Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne were always sure things in their respective categories, but the film picking up a nomination from the Screen Actor's Guild over "Into the Woods" (which has a dream team of an ensemble) indicates strength; the film is obviously playing well and actors (the largest voting body in the Academy) respect it. That's great to have going into the this phase of the race. I'm confused, because none of the supporting characters are offered much depth/screen time outside of Jones and Redmayne, but I guess that's why I don't vote on these things.
- Jake Gyllenhaal:
- Gyllenhaal swiped up a Globe and a SAG nomination, but what's more important is "Nightcrawler" popping up in Best Picture categories with groups like the Broadcast Film Critics. I still think Steve Carrell may edge him out in the end, but if people like the film this much, he could ride his way to his second nomination. The only problem is, who does he take out?
- Ava Duvernay
- With her nomination for Best Director at the Golden Globes, Duvernay becomes the fifth woman to ever be nominated for the award, and the first woman of color. Based on her previous work and the response from people who have seen "Selma", it's well deserved; expect her to make history at the Oscars.
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Wes Anderson's quirky film was seen as an awards also ran earlier in the season, due to a usual lack of Anderson love come awards time, and the fact his films always premiere so early in the year. That being said, the film nabbed nominations from SAG, the Globes, the Broadcast film critics, and was named as a runner up during the LAFCA voting period for categories like Director and Picture. People really love this film, and I think that's enough to carry it to the Oscars, who owe Wes Anderson after snubbing him for "Moonrise Kingdom".
- Michael Keaton
- People love "Birdman", but more importantly, people love Michael Keaton. From the pool of Best Actor frontrunners (Carrell, Redmayne, Oyelowo, and Cumberbatch), he has won the most precursor trophies. That's key when you have a really baity performance like Redmayne's in the play, but it also helps he's so respected. I think that's going to carry him to a win, and how refreshing it will be to see an actor win for such a great performance, in addition to their body of work.
- "Interstellar":
- No love for Christopher Nolan's sic-fi epic. Though it was never going to be a play for the Screen Actor's Guild, I expected it to at least make an appearance at the Golden Globes or the Broadcast Film Critics, neither of which nominated it for Best Picture (the Globes did nominate it for Best Score though, while the Broadcast Film Critics gave it two nominations for Score and VFX). It's made a lot of money since it premiered, but obviously its Oscar hopes are all but gone at this point.
- Angelina Jolie and "Unbroken":
- Perhaps the best example of how astronomically high expectations as a perceived Oscar knockout can torpedo your actual chances once you actually premiere to the public. Angie has been working the circuit for months now, priming herself for a Best Director nomination, along with several others for the Louis Zamperini biopic/passion project "Unbroken". However, it's safe to say that the reception for the film hasn't been as high as originally intended. It missed key nominations from SAG and the Globes, which usually jump at the chance to reward Jolie (remember when they nominated her for "The Tourist"?). You can probably count her out of that Best Director race, and I don't know if the film itself can break into the Best Picture field with films like "The Grand Budapest Hotel" coming on strong.
- "Into the Woods":
- Though it popped up in the AFI's top 10 list and snagged a predictable Best Picture Comedy/Musical nomination from the Globes, the Screen Actor's Guild did not include it in their line up for Best Ensemble, which is problematic. That being said, this may just have to do with the film's Christmas release date; aside from that positive early screening about a month ago, buzz has been relatively quiet. Disney is probably waiting for post-premiere to amp up its awards campaign. At least it managed a nomination from Meryl Streep, but the other ladies (Anna Kendrick and Emily Blunt) probably have to kiss their chances at a nomination goodbye. Still, once it plays for a wider audience I think the below the craft categories (production design, costumes, makeup) and love for Meryl will help propel it to a Best Picture nomination.
- The rest of "Selma":
- Another film that got 0 love from the Screen Actor's Guild, though, once again this probably has to do with the film's late release date (that and no screeners were sent out to members). That being said, it was recognized by the Globes, who nominated leading man David Oyelowo, the film itself (Best Film- Drama), director Duvernay and the Original Song. It's going to play like gangbusters for the Academy I expect, and partnered with the current issues in America with racial inequality, the film has a very timely appeal that will help it stay in the conversation.
- "Gone Girl":
- Arguably the biggest question mark in the race. The source material comes from the critically acclaimed best selling novel of the same name from Gillian Flynn (who wrote the film's screenplay and is a threat to win in that category, I think, based on that narrative alone), directed by Oscar's favorite director to snub, David Fincher. It features acclaimed turns by breakout leading lady Rosamund Pike, and future Batman himself Ben Affleck, with enthusiasm for supporting players (Carrie Coon, Kim Dickens and Tyler Perry). Still, not enough to land that (what would have been a well deserved) SAG ensemble nomination. It's also been the subject of ridicule from various Academy screenings, which doesn't bode well for its chances with Oscar, despite notices from critics groups and the Golden Globes. Still, its status as a box office hit and mainstream appeal may just put it over the edge to reap nominations in several categories, though I feel a Best Picture nomination will continue to elude it.
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