Oscar Contenders: Who is Up and Who is Down?

"American Hustle" racked up 10 nominations last year, and you can attribute that to buzz 100%. By the time nomination ballots were filled out, the film had been anointed as the frontrunner by the New York Film Critics Circle (the first major group to hand out awards). The NYFCC blatantly changed their awards date to be the first, before the Los Angeles critics and before the National Board of Review, but this was no accident. It's universally accepted that the group wanted to establish their impact as an organization, and they did by shoving American Hustle firmly into the race. They gave the film Best Picture, Screenplay and Supporting Actress honors, with director David O. Russell coming in 2nd to Steve McQueen, and Amy Adams placing 2nd to Cate Blanchett. The film had a strong early reception from industry insiders, all of which had taken place before anyone of importance had actually seen the film.. and thus it walked away with 10 Oscar nominations. But when voters and audiences sat down to watch the film, the reception had become more divisive. In the end, it walked away with 0 Oscars of those 10 nominations. This is an example of how buzz and hype can build your film up, but also how it can tear you down.

Hype now dominates the Oscar race. What films have the most hype? What are people on the internet talking about? Which films are being talked about the most? Following a film's buzz is arguably the best way to guess where its Oscar standing is. It's been about a month since we last sat down and looked at the Oscar race. Several high profile contenders have been released since, but have they stuck their landing? Let's see where they stand. 

Oscar Race: Turning Up the Heat

The end of the summer is upon us, and with the Venice Film Festival just around the corner (starting on the 27th and ending on the 6th of September), we're really about to get in the thick of Oscar season.

Of course, the summer has been dominated (mainly) by buzz; none of the films that are being predicted to be heavyweights in the season have premiered to the masses yet, except for Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" (more on that later). Of the films predicted to do well this season, even fewer have had premieres at all ("Whiplash" had Sundance, "Foxcatcher" had Cannes, "Birdman" will open Venice in a week's time); we've mainly been restricted to pictures, hearsay and trailers.

So, where does that leave us now?

The Rest of Our Acting Contenders: Old and New Faces

Emma Stone and Michael Keaton could receive their first Oscar nominations for "Birdman"

A few days ago, I ran through our long list of Best Actress contenders (a list that doesn't even really encompass all of the hopefuls this season has to offer, just those with the best chances at even being recognized). Though Best Actor is even more stacked than last year's massive pool, the Supporting categories are as weak as ever (at least they are right now), especially Supporting Actor.

"Birdman" has 3 contenders hoping for a nomination; leading man Michael Keaton, best known for his role in Tim Burton's "Batman" films, along with co-stars Ed Norton (a previous 2 time nominee) and Emma Stone (it would be her first Oscar nomination. She also will be seen in Woody Allen's "Magic in the Moonlight"), while the men of "Foxcatcher" all seem like safe bets in their respective categories; at this point, Leading Actor is between Steve Carrell and Channing Tatum, with Carrell having a slight edge (he has goodwill from being left out for "Little Miss Sunshine" a few years ago).

But enough yammering on, let's go through the rest of the acting categories. Take a look at my FULL list of nominations here

Early Oscar Predictions

With this year's Cannes Film Festival finished, we have (un)officially began the 2014 Oscar season... which makes my brain hurt because it doesn't even seem like that long ago that I was watching Lupit Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence duke it out for Best Supporting Actress. But as it does every year, Oscar season seems to start just as it ends.

Final Oscar Predictions

Tomorrow is the big day; we're finally going to see what films the Academy prefers as we head into Phase 2 of awards season.

Important things to watch out for below. You can view my final predictions for nominations here.

Updated Oscar Predictions!

The last few days have been very telling in terms of the awards race. We've heard from both SAG, and the Globes now, some contenders have fallen off the radar, and some have popped up (Daniel Bruhl from Rush and Abdi Barkhad both landed SAG and Globe nominations over Tom Hanks and Jonah Hill).

The Best Actress field seems pretty much locked up as it has for awhile now; Bullock-Blanchett-Streep-Thompson-Dench seem pretty solidified in their slots, while Amy Adams and Adele Exarchopoulos are fighting hard to break in. One wonders if they'll even come close.

The Actor field has 4 solid contenders; Ejifor, Dern, Hanks, and McConaughey. That fifth slot can go just about any which way. Forest Whitaker landed a crucial SAG nomination after being absent from the critics awards, but missed out on the Globes. Redford scored with the critics, missed SAG, and bounced back at the Globes. And then there's Michael B. Jordan who hasn't won any Best Actor trophies, but keeps getting Breakthrough Performance wins (he even beat Oscar front runner Lupita Nyong'o at the Gothams), so one wonders if those will translate to Oscar. But the biggest question mark is Leonardo DiCaprio. SAG passed over him due to not having screened the film in time, so we really can't hold that against him; the Actors in the Academy will have definitely seen Wolf by the time the AMPAS announce their roster. He did score a Globe nomination, and is receiving raves for his work. Redford seems secure, but that SAG omission is telling... DiCaprio could swoop in and steal it.

Oprah's omission from the Globes is a big deal, seeing as she's friggin Oprah, but she has the actors behind her, so I don't think she'll be missing out. Nyong'o still feels like the front runner. They're joined by Nyong'o and Lawrence, and now it seems like Julia Roberts. I don't think Octavia Spencer will be showing up, not even the Globes went for her.

In any event, I've updated my predictions, which you can take a look at here. 

Is Oscar Nomination #18 in the Cards for Meryl Streep?

(photo courtesy of Entertainment Weekly)

From the moment it was announced that Meryl Streep was playing Viola Weston in the film adaptation of the acclaimed stage play August: Osage County, people were already predicting that Meryl Streep would win her 3rd Oscar, a trophy that had seemed to escape the legendary actress after being nominated again and again for over a decade. This was despite the fact that Streep was already in a heated Oscar race against Viola Davis, a favorite to win a leading Oscar for her role as maid turned novelist in The Help. Streep herself, a former co-star of Davis' from "Doubt", campaigned for Davis' win. Alas, despite the announcement of the new, buzzy role, Streep's turn as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was the winning performance that year.