The Golden Globes are notorious for being (pardon my french) star fuckers. Prime example being their nominations for "The Tourist" (a critical/commercial failure) starring Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp. In other words, they nominate the biggest stars to get them into the ceremony, and most of the times the bigger the star, they more likely they'll win.
Last year, Ben Affleck's Argo instantly became a front runner after its performance at the Globes, where Affleck won over presumed frontrunners Steven Spielberg and Kathryn Bigelow. Some people (myself included) attributed this to the fact that Affleck was the biggest "celebrity" out of the bunch, and it's true. However, he was given a chance to speak, and he did a great job at being charming and likable. This was at the exact moment that Zero Dark Thirty was experiencing a lot of controversy over the torture scenes that happen in the beginning of the film; backlash was ensuing.
Argo began channeling momentum, and a campaign focusing on Affleck's likability and his being an actor-turned director began. Win after win, speech after speech, Affleck continued to charm and ooze likability. Though he was snubbed for Best Director (some feel like voters didn't include him because they assumed he was a shoo in), he took home the Best Picture Oscar. His win at the Globes was an important turning point in the race; it was a weak moment for Zero Dark Thirty, and Argo came in and stole its thunder. This is why these award shows are important; speeches and getting up onstage give you good practice for the Oscars. Voters really do pay attention to all of this little stuff.
So where does that leave us this year? Read my predictions below:
Best Picture (Drama):
As I said, the Globes are famous for nominating the big stars. The Bullock/Clooney duo almost assures Gravity a spot, and I'd say is the one to win. Likewise, Oprah and that starry cast should bring in The Butler after being left out by the critics, while Hanks will more than likely assure spots for Banks and maybe even Captain Phillips, though I feel as if the critical raves will be enough for 12 Years A Slave to make it in. A win isn't out of the question, but I just feel as if Gravity is going to take this one. The fifth slot is tricky, but Jennifer Garner and Matthew McConaughey's star power should make Dallas Buyers Club an obvious choice.
Predictions:
- Gravity
- Saving Mr. Banks
- 12 Years A Slave
- Lee Daniels': The Butler
- Dallas Buyers Club
Best Picture (Comedy and Musical):
The Globes split their Best Picture categories in 2, between Drama and Comedy & Musical. This is where films like Nebraska and Inside Llewyn Davis will find love here. Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts' August: Osage County will be too starry to resist (despite it being dramatic, the [dark] humor in the film is enough for it to be considered a comedy). While I could see The Wolf of Wall Street being a player here, I'm predicting Sandra Bullock's other film, The Heat, to be present.. They love her (remember that double nom for The Blind Side and The Proposal back in 2009?), and Melissa McCarthy's presence doesn't hurt either. The one to win though, will most definitely be American Hustle.
Predictions:
- American Hustle
- Nebraska
- Inside Llewyn Davis
- The Heat
- August: Osage County
You can bet Martin Scorsese is going to make it in (he won here for for Hugo in 2011), along with Alexander Payne and David O. Russell. The support for Gravity will probably bring Alfonso Cuaron in, along with Steve McQueen (I can't imagine them snubbing him based on the fact he's not well known). I bet O.Russell takes it.
Predictions:
- Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
- David O. Russell, American Hustle
- Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
- Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Best Actor (Drama):
This one is tricky, because there are so many actors contending for a spot this year, and will be split between the two categories, which complicates things for the Oscars (the "Comedic"performances usually get the shaft). Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks and Matthew McConaughey are the sure things about this category, and I could see McConaughey winning. I feel as if Forrest Whitaker will also make it in (he was never going to be a winner during the critics' awards; this is his chance to shine), and Robert Redford will get in for name recognition.
Predictions:
- Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
- Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels': The Butler
- Robert Redford, All Is Lost
- Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Best Actor (Comedy & Musical):
You can bet Leonardo DiCaprio will not only make it in, but win for his performance in The Wolf of Wall Street; they tend to like his collaborations with Scorsese the most. Bruce Dern, Oscar Isaac, and Christian Bale should also make it in leaving a fifth slot up for grabs. Joaquin Phoenix could make it in for the lighthearted Her (it was never going to have much of a standing at the Globes outside of Phoenix anyway), or Joseph Gordon-Levitt could show up for his role in Don Jon. I'm going with Phoenix though, since he was nominated last year for The Master).
Predictions:
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
- Christian Bale, American Hustle
- Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
- Bruce Dern, Nebraska
- Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Best Actress (Drama):
There are 3 default nominees: Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, and Emma Thompson. I don't see Cate Blanchett losing, but she could face some heat from Sandra Bullock. I could also see Judi Dench making it in for Philomena, despite the lack of enthusiasm for that film/performance in general. That leaves one slot. I could see Kate Winslet making it in for the little seen Labor Day, just because she's Kate Winslet, but what I'm hoping for is Brie Larson to show up as a surprise nominee for Short Term 12. Do I think it'll happen? Kinda, and it could.... it could right?
Predictions:
- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
- Sandra Bullock, Gravity
- Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
- Judi Dench, Philomena
- Brie Larson, Short Term 12
Best Actress (Comedy & Musical):
Meryl Streep's scenery chewing turn in August: Osage County will land the actress her 28th overall nomination, though a win is probably out of the question. I think Amy Adams will take it (just a feeling I have), and Julia Louis Dreyfus could benefit from VEEP support for her turn in Enough Said. Sandra Bullock could be a double nominee for The Heat, along with co-star Melissa McCarthy (both would be so very deserving).
Predictions:
- Amy Adams, American Hustle
- Meryl Streep: August: Osage County
- Julia Louis Dreyfus, Enough Said
- Sandra Bullock, The Heat
- Melissa McCarthy, The Heat
Best Supporting Actor:
Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender front load the category, followed by Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks and Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street. James Gandolfini is the likeliest candidate for the last spot, but I could see them nominating James Franco for his weird turn in Spring Breakers, especially after his win with the LAFCA this past weekend. Will Forte from Nebraska and John Goodman in Inside Llewyn Davis are dark horse candidates, but I doubt those will actually happen unless both of those films have major support with the Globes.
Predictions:
- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
- Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
- Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
- Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
- James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Best Supporting Actress:
Oprah. It's all about Oprah. Though she's been gone from the awards circuit up until now, this will be where she makes her mark. Lupita Nyong'o might surprise based on the love for the performance, but something tells me Oprah has this particular award locked up. These two ladies should be joined by Jennifer Lawrence of American Hustle (another threat to Oprah considering her rising popularity and another acclaimed/successful Hunger Games film, though her win last season is a big hurdle to get over), and Julia Roberts from August: Osage County. June Squibb from Nebraska has been something of a critical fave, but the fact she's not really a household name hinders her a bit, and I suppose Octavia Spencer could be a possibility, however I'm predicting Scarlett Johansson gets in for Don Jon (the performance in Her has been deemed ineligible) seeing as she's been nominated many times by the Globes.
- Oprah, Lee Daniels': The Butler
- Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
- Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
- Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
- Scarlett Johansson, Don Jon
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