The last few days have been very telling in terms of the awards race. We've heard from both SAG, and the Globes now, some contenders have fallen off the radar, and some have popped up (Daniel Bruhl from Rush and Abdi Barkhad both landed SAG and Globe nominations over Tom Hanks and Jonah Hill).
The Best Actress field seems pretty much locked up as it has for awhile now; Bullock-Blanchett-Streep-Thompson-Dench seem pretty solidified in their slots, while Amy Adams and Adele Exarchopoulos are fighting hard to break in. One wonders if they'll even come close.
The Actor field has 4 solid contenders; Ejifor, Dern, Hanks, and McConaughey. That fifth slot can go just about any which way. Forest Whitaker landed a crucial SAG nomination after being absent from the critics awards, but missed out on the Globes. Redford scored with the critics, missed SAG, and bounced back at the Globes. And then there's Michael B. Jordan who hasn't won any Best Actor trophies, but keeps getting Breakthrough Performance wins (he even beat Oscar front runner Lupita Nyong'o at the Gothams), so one wonders if those will translate to Oscar. But the biggest question mark is Leonardo DiCaprio. SAG passed over him due to not having screened the film in time, so we really can't hold that against him; the Actors in the Academy will have definitely seen Wolf by the time the AMPAS announce their roster. He did score a Globe nomination, and is receiving raves for his work. Redford seems secure, but that SAG omission is telling... DiCaprio could swoop in and steal it.
Oprah's omission from the Globes is a big deal, seeing as she's friggin Oprah, but she has the actors behind her, so I don't think she'll be missing out. Nyong'o still feels like the front runner. They're joined by Nyong'o and Lawrence, and now it seems like Julia Roberts. I don't think Octavia Spencer will be showing up, not even the Globes went for her.
In any event, I've updated my predictions, which you can take a look at here.
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