SAG Nominations

James Gandolfini, a previous SAG winner, was nominated posthumously for his performance in Enough Said.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are arguably the most important precursor award there is. The Guild is made up of actors who are voting for their fellow actors. They happen to be the largest Guild in the Academy, so their picks are often a sign of what is to come when the AMPAS announce their pick for nominations.

They're some wildcards thrown in each year (Hillary Swank for Conviction back in 2010, Hellen Mirren for Hitchcock last year, etc) that don't make it to the Oscars, but a large amount of these nominees will repeat, same for the winners, though again, a nomination/win is not always a sure thing in terms of winning an Oscar, as nice of a trophy as it is to have behind your campaign.

Anyway, you can read the full list of nominees (complete with my commentary) below. There were some surprises (not all of them good)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast:

12 Years A Slave-

• Benedict Cumberbatch/ Ford 
• Paul Dano/ Tibeats 
• Garrett Dillahunt/ Armsby 
• Chiwetel Ejiofor/ Soloman Northup
• Michael Fassbender/ Edwin Epps
• Paul Giamatti/ Freeman
• Scoot McNairy/ Brown
• Lupita Nyong'o/ Patsey
• Adepero Oduye/ Eliza 
• Sarah Paulson/ Mistress Epps
• Brad Pitt/ Bass
• Michael Kenneth Williams/ Robert
• Alfre Woodard/ Mistress Shaw

American Hustle-

• Amy Adams/ Sydney Prosser 
• Christian Bale/ Irving Rosenfeld 
• Louis C.K./ Stoddard Thorsen
• Bradley Cooper/ Richie DiMaso
• Paul Herman/ Alfonse Simone
• Jack Huston/ Pete Musane 
• Jennifer Lawrence/ Rosalyn Rosenfeld
• Alessondro Nivola/ Federal Prosecutor
• Michael Pena/ Sheik (Agent Hernandez) 
• Jeremy Renner/ Mayor Carmine Polito
• Elisabeth Rohm/ Dolly Polito 
• Shea Whigham/ Carl Elway

August: Osage County-

• Abigail Breslin/ Jean Fordham
• Chris Cooper/ Charles Aiken
• Benedict Cumberbatch/ "Little" Charles Aiken
• Juliette Lewis/ Karen Weston
• Margo Martindale/ Mattie Fae Aiken
• Ewan McGregor/ Bill Fordham
• Dermot Mulroney/ Steve
• Julianne Nicholson/ Ivy Weston
• Julia Roberts/ Barbara Weston
• Sam Shepard/ Beverly Weston
• Meryl Streep/ Violet Weston
• Misty Upham/ Johanna 

Dallas Buyers Club-

• Jennifer Garner/ Dr. Eve Saks
• Matthew McConaughey/ Ron Woodroof
• Jared Leto/ Rayon
• Denis O'Hare/ Dr. Sevard
• Dallas Roberts/ David Wayne
• Steve Zahn/ Tucker

Lee Daniels': The Butler-

• Mariah Carey/ Hattie Pearl
• John Cusack/ Richard Nixon
• Jane Fonda/ Nancy Reagan
• Cuba Gooding Jr./ Carter Wilson
• Terrance Howard/ Howard
• Lenny Kravitz/ James Halloway
• James Marsden/ John F. Kennedy 
• David Oyelowo/ Louis Gaines
• Alex Pettyfir/ Thomas Westfall
• Vanessa Redgrave/ Annabeth Westfall
• Alan Rickman/ Ronald Reagan
• Liev Schreiber/ Lyndon B. Johnson
• Forest Whitaker/ Cecil Gaines
• Robin Williams/ Dwight D. Eisenhower 
• Oprah Winfrey/ Gloria Gaines 

I expected 12 Years, Hustle, and Osage County all to make appearances here, and to a lesser degree, I had a feeling The Butler would show up due to the size of the ensemble. However, the lineup omits key players such as Elijah Kelley and Yaya DeCosta for people such as Mariah Carey, Vanessa Redgrave, and Alex Pettyfir who are onscreen for maybe a minute combined (and in the case of Mariah, there's no dialogue, she stares into the distance and is briefly featured in 2 shots of 2 scenes). I don't expect much of this sudden love for The Butler to translate into any major nominations at the Oscars outside of Oprah and possibly Best Picture, but event that is a long shot. The shocker here is Dallas Buyers Club. It seems there's a lot more support for that film than I had anticipated (the only nod it missed out on was Jennifer Garner, and no one really expected that to happen anyway), which could translate into a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. The Wolf of Wall Street is noticeably absent, but I don't think SAG was able to screen it in time for nomination deadlines. This award could go any number of ways; I want to say 12 Years takes it but there's a possibility that American Hustle could win . There are some years where they go with the front runner (The Argo, or The King's Speech; this year it would be 12 Years) or sometimes they pick the ensemble they liked better (The Help, Inglorious Basterds; this year it could be Hustle or even The Butler). 

Outstanding Performance by A Male Actor in a Leading Role:

• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels': The Butler 

Dern, Ejiofor, Hanks, and McConaughey all seem pretty solid for Oscar; I don't expect much movement in those slots. Forest Whitaker's inclusion makes sense in context, seeing as The Butler was able to score an Ensemble nomination, not to mention Whitaker is a respected actor amongst his peers. However his inclusion comes at the expense of Robert Redford, who I predict will be the fifth nominee at the Oscars depending on how much the AMPAS like Inside Llewyn Davis (Oscar Isaac shouldn't be forgotten about simply because of his exclusion here; Llewyn Davis was never going to be a big SAG player) and The Butler. I think Ejiofor is gonna take it, but he might face some heat from McConaughey. 

Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: 

• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity
• Judi Dench, Philomena 
• Meryl Streep. August: Osage County
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

.... Yawn. I was hoping for Julia Louis Dreyfus to maybe crack this list, but it seems this set that's seemingly been predicted the whole season is what we'll end up with in the end. Shocking that Amy Adams didn't get in, maybe Globe & Oscar will come through for her, or maybe not. If Adele Exarchopoulos has any hopes of breaking this set, she needs help from the Globes and BAFTA immediately. Otherwise, I think this should be an easy win for Blanchett (unless there's a last minute surge for Sandra Bullock).

Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Daniel Bruhl. Rush
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave 
• James Gandolfini, Enough Said
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Daniel Bruhl and newcomer Barkhad Abdi are the surprises in this category, though I have a feeling that come Oscar time Bruhl will be replaced by Jonah Hill from The Wolf of Wall Street, and there's a chance Abdi could be replaced in favor of Bradley Cooper, though there's a lot of love for Abdi's performance that could help him stick around, and he obviously has support from the Actors that Cooper is missing. There's also the possibility that Hanks could still score for Saving Mr. Banks despite missing out here. At the end of the day, Leto should easily walk away with this trophy though.

Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Actress:

• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
• June Squibb, Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels': The Butler

Roberts really needed this boost, and what a boost it is. With the Actors behind her, she could follow Meryl to the Oscars. Winfrey makes her first awards season appearance proving she's still a threat (she was never going to be a critics' darling). I don't think Octavia Spencer is going to happen, though she has gotten some nice notices, in fact things don't seem all that great for Fruitvale Station looking down the future guild nominations. It's a tough call to see who could win this: it could go to Nyong'o, Winfrey, OR they could both cancel each other out and pave the way for Lawrence to take it (again), though that's less likely.... or is it?