The Golden Globes are a weird case of award show. They take place before the Oscar nominations are announced, but after the voting for nominees has closed. What this means, is that no matter what happens at the Globes, it has nothing to do with a film or person's chances at getting nominated for an Oscar.
Unlike SAG, BAFTA, DGA and PGA, the Hollywood Foreign Press has no association with the Oscars. For example, the members of SAG are all members of the Academy, so their choices for winners are indicative on how the much larger voting body of actors will vote come time to decide a winner. But the HFPA is their own body, with entirely different people voting. And as history will tell you, they love nominating and awarding stars over character actors.
So then, what does it all mean? If this award has nothing to do with Oscar nominations, why is it important? Is it simply just another glamorized but meaningless award ceremony?
In a sense, yes; as I said before, the Globes have no bearing on whether a film will be nominated for an Oscar or not.
Why they're important, however, is an entirely different case altogether. The Globes are sometimes indicative of a nominee's heat. Jennifer Lawrence winning over Lupita Nyong'o is not really a surprise. As I mentioned, they love their stars, and the Girl on Fire is EVERYWHERE. Nyong'o is a first time nominee being nominated for her first performance; she's reletively unknown to the public. So Hustle's win here is less telling and more of just a general thing that was going to happen.
The win in Actress, however, is very telling, as it was between Meryl Streep and Amy Adams. This win is part of an overall narrative that has been building for months; Amy Adams is in a film that is more beloved than Meryl Streep's, which counts for a lot. Though Streep has nabbed a crucial SAG nomination, she was left off the BAFTA shortlist in favor of Adams. With Adams' win here, it seems like she has a lot more heat heading into nomination day than Streep does, which not only means Adams could get her first ever Leading Actress nomination ever, but American Hustle is a force to be reckoned with if it can knock Queen Meryl out of the race.
The Globes can also be a good time for hopeful winners to practice their speeches. Though this will have no bearing on their nomination, it could help them win; voters love memorable, and charming speeches from winners. Matthew McConaughey seemed very aware of this last night, nailing a classy speech that also was very reserved and not too full of himself. That's very important, especially in a competitive category like Best Actor this year. Though it remains to be seen if he is the true frontrunner and not just a victim of the HFPA's starfucker syndrome, he's definitely in the lead right now, Golden Globe in tow and a nice speech behind him.
It's also an oppertunity, if you're an actress, to stun voters and charm them with your beauty. Yes, this seems very sexist and misogynistic but unfortunatley it's true (just revist Kate Winslet's brutal campaigning for The Reader back when she won and you'll see). Lupita Nyong'o was everyone's favorite last night, and not only did she charm with her gorgeous style, but her reserved and respected personality. Don't be surprised if we see the tide turning for Nyong'o come Critic's Choice and SAG later in the week; a lot of people are learning her name, and are beguiled with her (rightfully so).
So, basically what we learned last night:
- Lots of support for American Hustle
- Matthew McConaughey would be able to nail a good Oscar speech
- The race between J Law and Lupita is as fierce as ever; too close to tell right now
- There is still some love for 12 Years A Slave; it should not be underestimated
- Gravity winning a director award between 12 YAS and Hustle's BP wins is evidence of strong support as well; It's going to come down to these 3 films most likely.
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