Screen Actors Guild Award Predictions: Big Night for American Hustle?

The cast of American Hustle looks poised to con the award for Best Ensemble. 

The Screen Actors Guild is one of the most important precursor awards to have behind you or the film your in; the actors are the largest voting body in the Academy, and though SAG is significantly smaller than the AMPAS voting actors, it's very telling of which performances could win at the Oscars.

Unlike the Globes, the SAG awards take place before voting, so they have the power to influence voters. The Academy likes voting for winners, and a winner who can deliver a great speech is like catnip to them.

However, winners at SAG haven't always gone on to win the Oscar; Viola Davis not only won the Leading Actress award, but a shared award with the ensemble of The Help. Sadly, none of this was enough to conquer Meryl Streep, who went on to win her 3rd Oscar for The Iron Lady. Streep's Oscar narrative was just too strong I suppose.

So if you win the SAG award, its not set in stone that you will win an Oscar, just like being nominated does not guarantee you an Oscar nomination (.... Helen Mirren and Emma Thompson anyone?).

So where does that bring us in terms of this year? 12 Years A Slave will face off with American Hustle (Gravity has one nomination in Sandra Bullock, in no fault of its own as the cast is made up of her and George Clooney) for Supporting Actress (Jennifer Lawrence vs. Lupita Nyong'o) and the Ensemble award (SAG's equivalent to Best Picture). Lawrence won the Globe, but Nyong'o just won the Broadcast Critics' Award, which tends to line up with Oscar more often than not, so the edge is with Nyong'o on this one. But American Hustle's starry cast is almost irresistible, and the acting is really the movie's only true strength.

Expect Hustle to take the Ensemble award, it's almost stupid to bet otherwise. If there were more support for Lee Daniels': The Butler or August: Osage County, they could surprise and win it, but those ensembles are just lucky to be there honestly. I suppose 12 Years A Slave could upset... it did land more nominations than American Hustle did, but the popularity of American Hustle is just too hard to ignore.

But this will not be the end of the Best Picture race... that will come with the announcement of the PGA, on Sunday.

Read my official predictions below:

Best Supporting Actress:

• Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
• Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
• Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o

Best Supporting Actor:

• Will Win: Jared Leto
• Could Win: (No one can grab this award from his hands, this was decided months ago)
• Should Win: Jared Leto

Best Actress:

• Will Win: Cate Blanchett
• Could Win: (Another, this was decided months ago deals)
•  Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Actor:

• Will Win: Matthew McConaughey 
• Could Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
• Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (McConaughey is a deserving winner, but I just want this for him so bad)

Best Ensemble:

• Will Win: American Hustle
• Could Win: 12 Years A Slave
• Should Win: 12 Years A Slave