What the Oscar Nominations Tell Us

Here are some takeaways from this morning's Oscar Nominations (if you're interested in what I think)

• Saving Mr. Banks was clearly not in the Academy's wheelhouse as many (myself included) thought it would be. Not even Emma Thompson, the film's sure bet, could land a Best Actress nomination. The only nomination it received was one in Original Score.
• Unlike Mr. Banks, The Butler couldn't even manage 1 nomination, not even for Queen of the World Oprah Winfrey. The Academy made the right decision is nominating Sally Hawkins in her place, who is a subtle force in the Cate Blanchett dominated Blue Jasmine. Which, brings me to my next point.... 
• Amy Adams swooped in and landed alongside of Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock and Judi Dench. Now, the Academy clearly liked Blue Jasmine enough to nominate Hawkins over Oprah (the Screenplay for Woody is a default nomination; he's the Meryl Streep of the writers, so that's not surprising). But as much as they liked Blue Jasmine, they liked American Hustle even more; 10 nominations (including one for Christian Bale, OVER TOM HANKS?). So what I'm asking, is if Amy Adams has a shot at stealing this from Cate Blanchett? What's thought to have been a race between Sandra Bullock and Cate Blanchett, has clearly shifted. Both Adams and Blanchett won at the Globes, and while Blanchett has hogged literally every other award possible, Adams hasn't really been mentioned outside of BAFTA. But what Adams does have going for her, is never winning an Oscar. This would be Blanchett's 2cnd win, but 1st in Lead Actress.. it'll depend on if they love Hustle that much, but something tells me Adams will campaign hard going into phase 2. 
• The Best Actor race seems to changing. 12 Years A Slave received 9 nominations, with Dallas Buyers Club received 6. Dallas Buyers Club managed to get an editing nomination (an important one) in addition to a make up nomination (wow) and 2 nominations for Leto & McConaughey. It also nabbed a Best Picture mention. There's a lot of love for this movie, which is very clear given the nominations it received. It'll be interesting to see how 12 YAS performs with the guilds; if it isn't able to get any support, McConaughey's win over Ejiofor will be that much more likely. However....
• Wolf of Wall Street is incredibly popular; it managed Best Picture, Director, Actor, S. Actor, Editing and Screenplay nominations. Now, it didn't receive 10, but the 6 it got are very key nominations... which help build a case for rewarding Leo. Keep in mind that yes, he wasn't nominated for a SAG award, but that's only because Wolf wasn't screened in time. Leo is very respected and will probably campaign very very hard in the coming months... Basically, he's taken Ejiofor's seat as McConaughey's biggest competitor. 
• Gravity will undoubtedly take the technical categories, and there isn't a doubt in my mind Cuaron is losing that trophy. If McQueen wins, it'll be as a producer if 12 Years A Slave wins Best Picture. Gravity is undoubtedly Cuaron's film, and given the respect he has within the industry, I'd say this race is over. 
• Leto will continue his reign as Supporting Actor king; Dallas Buyers Club is very popular, and though it's unknown if that's enough to push McConaughey to a win, Leto will ride the love for sure. 
• Supporting Actress, as much as they clearly loved Hustle, feels very much like Nyong'o's to win. 9 nominations, including Director, Picture and those acting nominations. With Hustle the clear favorite to win Picture, it seems like 12 YAS has to win something... and I feel that with the love they have for the film, it will translate to a win for the increasingly popular Lupita Nyong'o.