Where Are We in the Oscar Race?

Gravity, American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave are duking it out for the title of Best Picture of the Year. Who will the DGA pick? 

In the last month, we've heard from numerous critic's groups (including the BFCA), the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild. The Directors Guild will announce their winner on Sunday, and ultimately decide the new frontrunner.

But throughout the announcements and the seemingly endless awards shows, there are 3 films that have consistently come out on top each time. These are the 3 films that are currently duking it out for the win, the big prize.

Each film has its own band of supporters, its own narrative and reason for winning; it's going to be a photo finish.

American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years A Slave have built and maintained substantial heat in the past few months, but which film has enough gas in the tank to make it to the finish line?



American Hustle:
For It-

• $152 million at the box office is nothing to turn your nose away from; it's no Silver Lining's Playbook but it's quite a haul. 
• SAG Ensemble Win. The Actors are the largest voting branch within the Academy; the fact it was able to pull off a win here is something to keep in mind. Which brings me to....
• 10 Oscar nominations. More than any other film this year besides Gravity. Not to mention 4 of those nominations are for its actors (Bale, Adams, Cooper and Lawrence). 
• It's lighter and less intense than 12 Years A Slave and Gravity, which shouldn't have anything to do with choosing which film is the best, but with the Academy this goes for a lot. 
• David O. Russell has been working for years; this is his 3rd consecutive nomination for Picture and Director. The overdue factor is hard to ignore. 

Against It:

• It lost to both 12 Years A Slave and Gravity at the Producers Guild, who have the same type of voting system that the Academy does. The Producers Guild winner has always matched with the Oscar winner for Best Picture, whereas SAG Ensemble and Oscar Best Picture don't always match up (Inglorious Basterds, The Help)
• Though critics have gone wild (why?) for this film, it has its detractors; can anyone really pin down the plot?

Gravity:
For It-

• It's the second highest grossing film of the year ($677 million.... WOW)
• Sandra Bullock + George Clooney= major star power; that goes for a lot, they (especially Clooney) are beloved within the Academy. 
• 10 Oscar nominations, many of those being from the tech categories, which when added together account for very broad support.
• Tied with Gravity at the Producers Guild. On a preferential ballot... that's nearly impossible, so the fact Gravity was one of the films to tie is very important. PGA never misses with Oscar.
• Cuaron has been seen as the frontrunner for Best Director all year (he's won the most awards). DGA will probably go with him, and with the Producers, Directors and craftspeople behind the film.... a win is inevitable.
• It's the second most acclaimed film of the year; it's going to get a lot of number 1 votes.

Against It-

• Sandra Bullock is the star. Besides George Clooney's slight cameo, the film is all her. It won't have as much broad actor support behind as ensemble driven films like 12 Years or Hustle. 
• Sci-Fi films have never won Best Picture before. The nomination is usually the reward. Though this could also make for a good case to win I suppose..

12 Years A Slave
For It-

• It's the most acclaimed film of the year. It has more critics' awards for Best Picture, including the (Drama) Best Picture Globe and the BFCA for Picture of the year. 
• It tied with Gravity on a preferential ballot at the PGA, which is nearly impossible. PGA never misses with Oscar. 
• 9 Academy Award nominations. It managed nods for its 3 principle actors (Ejiofor, Fassbender and Nyong'o) and is a lock to win one in Supporting Actress. The actors clearly support the film, which means a lot because they are the largest branch in the Academy. 
• Not only is it an acclaimed film, but an important one; it's the first accurate display of slavery and its social justice narrative is too hard to ignore. It would make a very worthy winner, especially after the lackluster wins in the past few years (Argo, The Artist, The King's Speech).
• Fox Searchlight is a powerful ally to have in your corner. The fact they're distributing this film means a lot. They always run great campaigns, especially when they're backing a great film.
• Lupita Nyong'o & Steve McQueen have delivered memorable, and emotional speeches each time they've gone onstage to accept their awards. This means A LOT; you want good and memorable winners. 

Against It:

• People think it's "too intense", and although that shouldn't matter, some voters are reluctant to finish it all the way through or see it at all. 
• It's made much less money than the others, and while $40 million is hardly chump change, it's considerably smaller than Hustle's $152 mill or Gravity's behemoth $677 million.  

And there you have it, a breakdown of our frontrunners. Ultimately, I predict Cuaron will take the DGA, which may seem like a good reason to think Gravity will take it all the way (PGA and DGA is irresistible), but I think Cuaron will win Director and 12 YAS will take Picture at the Oscars. I mean, PGA would still technically be matched with Oscar in that case, and splits with Director and Picture have happened in the past.