Saturday, January 11, 2014

Golden Globes: Who Will (and Should) Win?

Jennifer Lawrence won last year's Best Actress: Comedy or Musical award. Who will win this year?

For better or for worse, the Golden Globes are almost upon us. The good thing is that Tina Fey and Amy Poehler hosting again this year (they'll be hosting next year's Golden Globes too) so it's definitely not going to be a boring ceremony. Personally, I'm glad to see that some of my favorites (Julia Louis-Dreyfus, namely) will be in attendance.

It's a competitive year for awards; American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years A Slave have all dominated the attention, with Dallas Buyers Club and Her hot on their tails. The Globes don't make it easy to predict frontrunners, however, because they split the drama and comedy categories. Therefore, American Hustle's win is almost assured, but either Gravity or 12 Years A Slave could win. However, it's always good to have a win behind you, whether it happens to be in the Comedy or Drama category. Ex: Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress in a Comedy last year and walked away with the Oscar; it doesn't always matter which genre you belong to, it's all about momentum, and who has it and who doesn't.

So below you'll find a run through of the major categories (and brief commentary) on who will win, who could win, and who should win on Sunday night. Enjoy!

Best Screenplay:

  • Spike Jonze, Her
  • Bob Nelson, Nebraska
  • Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena 
  • John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
  • David O. Russell and Erin Warren Singer, American Hustle
It's a race between Hustle and 12 YAS. Hustle's robust buzz gives it the edge, but don't be too shocked if 12 Years takes it. 

Who Will Win: American Hustle
Who Could Win: 12 Years A Slave
Who Should Win: 12 Years A Slave

Best Original Score:
  • Alex Ebert, All Is Lost 
  • Alex Heffes, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Steven Price, Gravity
  • John Williams, The Book Thief 
  • Hans Zimmer, 12 Years A Slave
The fact that Gravity's score is so prominent in the film will more than likely push it to a win, though if they're in the mood to hand 12 Years A Slave a trophy, this could be one of them. It will ultimately come down to which film they prefer best, and based on their track record the star power of Bullock and Clooney should push Gravity ahead to a win. 

Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Could Win: 12 Years A Slave
Who Should Win: Gravity

Best Original Song:
  • Atlas, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
  • Let It Go, Frozen
  • Ordinary Love, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Please Mr. Kennedy, Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Sweeter Than Fiction, One Chance
Probably the easiest race besides Animated Film and Actress: Drama. 

Who Will Win: Frozen
Who Could Win: N/A
Who Should Win: Frozen

Best Animated Film:
  • The Croods
  • Despicable Me 2
  • Frozen
Another cakewalk for Frozen. 

Best Foreign Language Film:
  • Blue Is the Warmest Color
  • The Hunt
  • The Past
  • The Great Beauty
  • The Wind Rises
Blue's controversial buzz gives it an edge here; the HFPA always choose the buzziest films.

Who Will Win: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Who Could Win: N/A
Who Should Win: Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor:
  • Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Daniel Bruhl, Rush
  • Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
  • Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
  • Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Jared Leto has been the "Monique" of this year, winning nearly every award in his path. Don't expect that to change here, unless the HFPA like American Hustle that much (and I don't think they do).

Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who Could Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Should Win: Jared Leto

Best Supporting Actress:
  • Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
  • Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
  • June Squibb, Nebraska
  • Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Now this is a tricky category. Though it would seem like Lupita Nyong'o has been the frontrunner all season, Jennifer Lawrence has racked up more of the critic's awards than she has. Though she just won last year, it seems like she's on her way to yet another win for her loud and obnoxious turn in American Hustle. I want to believe that Nyong'o can pull off a win... but these are the very same people that nominated The Tourist for Best Picture, so you can't always be sure they're gonna do the right thing. 

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Could Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o

Best Actor: Comedy or Musical:
  • Christian Bale, American Hustle
  • Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Joaquin Phoenix, Her
DiCaprio is easily the biggest star here, which you would think gives him an edge... but remember when he lost for Django Unchained? Wolf is an arguably better vehicle for DiCaprio, however, so he'll probably still win. When was the last time he won anything? It's been awhile hasn't it?

Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Who Could Win: Bruce Dern
Who Should Win: Oscar Isaac

Best Actor: Drama
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
  • Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Robert Redford, All Is Lost
McConaughey would make for a buzzy winner, and it would cap off his career renaissance. But Robert Redford is an acting legend, and something about that just seems like too great of an opportunity to pass up. 

Who Will Win: Robert Redford
Who Could Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Should Win: Either Ejiofor or McConaughey would make deserving winners

Best Actress: Comedy or Musical 
  • Amy Adams, American Hustle
  • Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
  • Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Meryl Streep has been nominated almost 30 times by the Globes... yes, 30 times. Let that sink in for a moment. And while you're letting it sink in, realize she's won 8 times. While the odds are certainly in her favor statistically speaking, she did just win here for Iron Lady, and American Hustle's Amy Adams has not only never won, but her film is nominated for Best Picture, and will win there.

Who Will Win: Amy Adams
Who Could Win: Meryl Streep
Who Should Win: Amy Adams Julia Louis-Dreyfus or Greta Gerwig basically everyone except Streep would make a great winner.

Best Actress: Drama

  • Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  • Judi Dench, Philomena
  • Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
  • Kate Winslet, Labor Day
....... Do I need to say anything other than Cate Blanchett?

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Could Win: N/A
Who Should Win: Sandra Bullock (only because I want her to win SOMETHING substantial this year and it would be great to get another speech I love her speeches. I love Blanchett's work in Blue Jasmine though)

Best Director:

  • Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
  • Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
  • Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
  • Alexander Payne, Nebraska
  • David O. Russell, American Hustle
It's really between Cuaron and McQueen I think, with O. Russell following close up behind. The sheer popularity of Gravity and the monumental achievement of Cuaron's directing should push him to a win.

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Could Win: Steve McQueen
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Picture: Comedy or Musical
  • American Hustle
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Inside Llewyn Davis
Expect American Hustle to begin its winning streak here. Nebraska could win I guess, but I don't realy see that happening.

Who Will Win: American Hustle
Who Could Win: Nebraska
Who Should Win: Her or Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Picture: Drama
  • 12 Years A Slave
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • Philomena
  • Rush
This will all really depend on whether or not the HFPA likes 12 Years A Slave or Gravity more. I can't see them giving McQueen director, which helps Gravity's case. However, splits happen sometimes... this could very well be a time where director and picture split.

Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Could Win: 12 Years A Slave
Who Should Win: Gravity or 12 Years A Slave



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